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The Bitcoin network experienced a rare two-block reorg on Mar. 23, at block height 941,880. Foundry mined six consecutive blocks, while AntPool and ViaBTC briefly extended a competing branch. The chain resolved the fork as designed, following the path with the most hash rate.
A fork visualization described in the report shows Foundry USA’s chain winning over a competing AntPool-ViaBTC branch at Bitcoin block height 941,880.
The article notes that the “six-confirmation rule” is widely repeated, but many who cite it cannot reconstruct why six is the number. It traces back to Satoshi Nakamoto’s 2008 whitepaper, which modeled finality using a catch-up probability framework. Under that model, as enough blocks accumulate on top of a transaction, the computational cost of rewriting history becomes prohibitive for an attacker with limited hash power.
In the whitepaper’s framing, the six-block shorthand corresponds to an attacker controlling about 10% of the network’s hash power. The article emphasizes that this assumption has been influential for sixteen years.
The report cites an analysis by Jameson Lopp that makes the confirmation-risk implication explicit. Under the Nakamoto catch-up model, the reversal risk after six confirmations is described as follows:
The article adds that at a 32.2% share—attributed to Foundry in recent pool-share snapshots—the same model puts the six-confirmation reversal risk near 18.9%.
The report argues that the context around the Mar. 23 reorg matters because Bitcoin is currently operating under three conditions that put the six-confirmation heuristic under pressure.
According to Hashrate Index data cited in the article, over the past three days:
Combined, the three pools account for approximately 60% of block production. The article characterizes this as elevated concentration in “coordinator power” compared with recent years.
The article states that, in practice, the industry’s largest venues have “abandoned the six-confirmation standard” in an operational judgment made years ago. It also argues that the six-confirmation rule is not fixed: it has been eroded by changes in hash power distribution, and market participants increasingly use guidelines reflecting observed conditions rather than a single universal threshold.
In that framing, the article concludes that the six-confirmation rule’s days as an unqualified standard are “running out.”
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