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The trouble with seeing the future is that those who imagine it often think it is closer than it really is. Many science-fiction films from the 1970s predicted dystopian 1990s, but real-world change tends to happen more slowly because people must agree to and participate in those developments.
That perspective is behind the author’s view of bitcoin’s trajectory: the predictions may be broadly on target, but the timing has taken longer than expected. The author notes that earlier forecasts and charts published previously appeared to resemble the current setup, though the “time access” (timing) has been off.
The author says the outlook remains bearish, while also including a bullish “idea” for bitcoin bulls. They frame charts as “route maps,” arguing that if the future follows the predicted path, the charts can help guide expectations and decisions. The author adds that their bearish scenarios have performed well so far.
The author references a “four-year cycle” thesis, saying that the narrative can be long-winded and complicated, but that the chart continues to reflect the pattern over multiple prior periods. They describe the thesis as requiring a “big reason” to justify a detour from the expected path.
On potential buying levels, the author says they would consider starting a small DCA (dollar-cost averaging) position if bitcoin falls below $40,000, but that this is less likely than waiting for lower prices. They add that at $30,000 they would be more tempted, though they suggest they might look elsewhere in crypto at that point.
The author closes by inviting readers to share thoughts below or via their YouTube channel.
Coinbase has launched a High Yield USDC vault within its in-app DeFi lending offering, adding a second lending option that provides exposure to a wider range of collateral assets. The product is powered by Morpho infrastructure and uses vault allocations curated by Steakhouse Financial.
