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Signaling a warming of relations between the United States and Iran lifted sentiment across global financial markets. Stocks rose, gold gained, while oil prices fell on expectations that energy supplies would improve.
On the morning of June 15 (Vietnam time), spot gold rose 2% to 4,304.11 USD per ounce, reaching its highest level since June 9. US gold futures for August also climbed 2% to 4,325.20 USD per ounce.
The rally was driven by news that US and Iranian officials have agreed on a peace framework. The framework includes ending the conflict, lifting US sanctions on Iran, and reopening the Hormuz Strait, a strategic shipping lane that carries a large share of global energy supplies.
Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the agreement is expected to be officially signed in Switzerland on June 19. US President Donald Trump also confirmed that reopening the Hormuz Strait is part of the deal, though the detailed terms have not yet been published.
Positive developments in the Middle East prompted a broad shift toward risk-taking. In Asia, investors increased exposure to risk assets as expectations for de-escalation of geopolitical tensions persisted.
In the United States, S&P 500 futures rose 0.9% and Nasdaq futures rose 1.5%. Major European futures also moved higher.
Energy markets reacted most sharply. Brent crude fell 4% to 83.8 USD per barrel, well below the May high of 126.41. US WTI crude dropped 4.7% to 80.89 USD per barrel.
Vivek Dhar, an energy analyst at CBA, forecast that Brent could fall to around 80 USD per barrel by year-end if oil exports resume smoothly.
Inflation expectations easing drew funds into the bond market. The yield on the US 2-year Treasury fell 6 basis points to 4.02%, weakening the US dollar broadly.
Gold also found support as inflation expectations eased and the prospect of Federal Reserve monetary easing improved the outlook for lower rates. Gold typically faces pressure in a high-rate environment due to its lack of yield, but the shifting inflation and policy expectations helped it regain appeal.
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