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Bitcoin (BTC) has gained approximately 12% since the U.S.-Iran conflict commenced on February 28, 2026, and is trading at around $71,144 as of March 24, 2026.
Bitcoin has outperformed both gold and the S&P 500 Index across most major geopolitical events, though there have been exceptions. Since the onset of the U.S.-Iran conflict, gold (XAUT) has declined 16% and is trading at approximately $4,420 by press time. As of March 23, 2026, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) had fallen 4% from conflict onset and is trading at approximately 6,580.99 at press time.
According to data from River, a Bitcoin-only financial services platform, Bitcoin’s 60-day return exceeded that of both gold and the S&P 500 following several major events: the U.S.-Iran escalation on January 3, 2020; the COVID-19 outbreak on March 11, 2020; the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022; and the U.S. regional banking crisis of March 9, 2023. A similar pattern was observed after Trump’s Liberation Day on April 2, 2025.
One notable exception occurred during the Yen carry trade unwinding on August 5, 2024, when gold outperformed Bitcoin. In the 60 days following that event, BTC returned 3% while gold surged 9%.
Bitcoin’s outperformance has also been supported by renewed institutional demand. Strategy Inc. announced the acquisition of 1,031 BTC on March 24, 2026, bringing its total holdings to 762,099 BTC, valued at approximately $54.23 billion at the time of writing.
Strategy Inc. also announced a $42 billion capital-raise target to fund the continued expansion of its Bitcoin acquisition program, signalling sustained long-term conviction in the asset.
Long-term holders appear to align with this institutional stance. On-chain data indicates that investors have been accumulating Bitcoin in anticipation of a potential sustained rally in the near term, according to on-chain analysis from Checkonchain, an on-chain analytics firm.
The combination of institutional accumulation, long-term holders’ inactivity, and Bitcoin’s historical resilience through geopolitical stress events points to a constructive setup for BTC as macroeconomic uncertainty persists.
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