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Bitcoin’s rally paused on Tuesday as investors moved into a wait-and-see posture ahead of the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated interest rate decision on Wednesday. After briefly pushing above $76,000 overnight, BTC slipped to around $74,000 during the U.S. session, delivering modest gains over the prior 24 hours.
Crypto-related equities generally edged higher. Stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) gained 5%, while bitcoin miner Bitdeer (BTDR) rose 12%, outperforming the broader market. In traditional markets, the Nasdaq increased 0.5% and the S&P 500 rose 0.25%, reflecting cautious optimism across risk assets.
Markets are almost unanimously pricing in a Fed hold, with benchmark interest rates expected to remain steady at 3.50%–3.75%. The key focus, however, is the forward guidance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and how policymakers plan to navigate a complex inflation backdrop, including rapidly rising oil prices linked to escalating conflict in Iran and their potential inflationary effects.
Analysts at Bitfinex said the pivotal question is whether the Fed still expects rate cuts in 2026 or instead signals a pause on further monetary easing. A more hawkish tone could strengthen the U.S. dollar and weigh on risk assets such as Bitcoin. Bitfinex also noted that Powell’s characterization of the oil price surge will be closely watched—whether it is framed as a temporary shock, which could support sentiment, or as more persistent, which could limit policy flexibility.
Wednesday also includes the February Producer Price Index (PPI) report. While it is typically less market-moving than the Consumer Price Index, its timing alongside the Fed decision increases its importance this week. Bitfinex cautioned that a “hot” PPI reading combined with a hawkish outcome from the FOMC would be the most damaging scenario for both equities and crypto.
Separately, K33 Research’s Vetle Lunde reported that the probability of rates holding steady through July has risen to over 60%, up from 22% the previous month. Rate cuts are now pushed to late 2026. Until additional clarity emerges, Bitcoin is expected to consolidate in the $74,000–$76,000 range.
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