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Fear still hangs over the crypto market even as Bitcoin closed April with its strongest monthly gain in 12 months. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered a reading of 39 on Friday, firmly in “Fear” territory, suggesting many investors remain cautious despite the month’s upbeat finish.
Bitcoin returned 12% in April, its best monthly performance since April 2025, when it gained 14%. The gain ended a streak of five consecutive red monthly candles, and the market has now closed two months in the green after that prolonged pullback.
Even so, the April result came in just below Bitcoin’s historical average for the month, which sits at 13%, according to CoinGlass data.
Bitcoin started April near 66,000 USD and is currently trading around 78,400 USD. The price remains about 35% below its all-time high of 125,100 USD, reached last October.
With May now open, market watchers are divided on where Bitcoin goes from here. Crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant warned that April’s rally may have been built on less durable demand.
CryptoQuant said the move was driven largely by futures traders rather than deeper structural demand, raising the possibility of a multi-month price decline ahead.
Other analysts took a more optimistic view. MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe argued that Bitcoin does not require a headline-grabbing catalyst to push back above 100,000 USD. He noted that Bitcoin last traded above 100,000 USD on November 13, about a month after a 19 billion USD crypto market liquidation event on October 10.
Jelle, meanwhile, offered a shorter-term perspective, writing: “We hit the ground running again next week.”
Looking at seasonal performance, CoinGlass data shows Bitcoin has historically returned an average of 7.78% in May, making it one of the more favorable months on the calendar.
Some traders are leaning on that track record to stay optimistic, with reports indicating they expect historical patterns to repeat. However, analysts have previously cautioned that past performance in crypto markets does not provide reliable predictive value.
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