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Bitcoin rose sharply today after Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz will remain fully open during the ongoing ceasefire, a development that pushed oil prices lower and lifted risk assets. Bitcoin climbed above $78,000 intraday before pulling back slightly, while several digital-asset treasury stocks, including Strategy, surged more than 10% as the move in BTC helped restore some holdings to green.
The rally comes after a difficult macro backdrop through much of 2026, marked by Middle East tensions, inflation concerns, a strong U.S. dollar, and tight liquidity that contributed to a steady decline from Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak of $126,000.
Today’s trading session was notable on the chart. Bitcoin opened at $75,172 and moved to $77,205 during the session, a 2.7% gain, with an intraday high of $78,384.
The move is being interpreted as the first week Bitcoin has traded above a descending resistance trendline that had rejected rallies since October 2025. The article describes the broader pattern since the $126,000 all-time high as a descending channel characterized by lower highs and lower lows, alongside repeated failed breakout attempts that were capped more tightly over time.
In that framework, the next logical support zone was previously projected around $50,000–$55,000. Today’s breakout is described as delaying, if not canceling, that path.
Despite the breakout, the article notes that key trend indicators remain mixed. The Exponential Moving Averages are still bearish, with the 50-day EMA below the 200-day EMA—a pattern commonly referred to as a “death cross.” In this view, the death cross is treated as a structural bearish signal, suggesting the recovery has not yet been strong enough to reverse the larger trend.
However, the gap between the two averages is starting to compress for the first time since January, which the article frames as an early sign of change.
The article also states that a “squeeze momentum” indicator has been released with positive momentum, suggesting compression has resolved in the upward direction.
On Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, traders are leaning bullish on Bitcoin’s next major move. The article reports that Myriad traders are placing 69% odds on Bitcoin reaching $84K before falling to $55K. It also says the gap favoring a “pump” is the widest since the market launched in early February.
At the same time, the article notes a separate Myriad market is more cautious on timing and magnitude, with Bitcoin given only a 6% chance of reaching a new all-time high before July.
In the article’s optimistic scenario, Bitcoin holds above the broken trendline, described as acting as support around $74,000–$75,000, while ADX climbs above 20–25.
Conversely, if bears regain control, the article says a renewed rejection—paired with RSI rolling over from near-overbought levels—could push Bitcoin back to test the support area. A break below support would be interpreted as turning the former resistance back into resistance, invalidating the breakout.
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