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Bitcoin is facing a strong supply wall around $72,000 on April 9 as spot liquidity inflows remain low in recent weeks. Since early February, the price has been trapped in consolidation, with notable resistance above $72,000. After rebounding above this level earlier this week, BTC may be forming a reversal setup, described as a potential double top with a lower high, trading at about $71,222 at press time.
With many crypto pairs showing signs of a possible bearish continuation flag, the recent Bitcoin rebound could be a false breakout. On-chain analytics platform Glassnode linked the move to weak bullish conviction, citing low liquidity inflows.
“Bitcoin bounced from $67,000 to $72,000, but weak spot demand and softer futures activity suggest the recovery still lacks strong conviction, even as ETF flows begin to turn modestly positive,” Glassnode noted.
Bitcoin’s relief rally this week has been supported by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, according to Finbold. However, the available liquidity has not been enough to push BTC above $72,000 to reclaim the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $81,600, the break-even level for recent buyers.
A potential recovery toward Bitcoin’s True Market Mean of approximately $78,000—described as the average acquisition cost for actively traded coins—would likely encounter selling pressure from short-term holders that remain underwater. Glassnode analysts said the aggregate breakeven for these holders is higher, at around $81,600. As a result, both $78,000 and $81,600 are identified as a distinct resistance zone.
Unless spot trading volume rises from its current multi-year lows, selling pressure could continue, keeping the midterm outlook bearish. In that scenario, BTC could fall to $54,000, a level that aligns with its realized price, defined as the average cost for all coins in circulation.
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