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Bitcoin was trading near $68,000 as short-term holders showed restraint despite heightened US-Iran war tensions. At press time, BTC was at $68,308, up 1.3% over the past 24 hours, and positioned near the top of its seven-day range between $62,905 and $69,340 after a sharp dip earlier in the week.
While the near-term recovery has pushed Bitcoin toward the upper end of its weekly range, the larger trend remains corrective. After reaching an all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025, Bitcoin is down about 45% from that peak. In 2026, it is down roughly 20%, reflecting continued pressure following last year’s rally.
Derivatives activity increased over the past day. CoinGlass data showed trading volume rising 8.7% to $72.3 billion, while open interest edged up 1.6% to $44.9 billion. When open interest rises alongside price, it can indicate that new positions are being opened rather than closed.
A March 1 analysis from a CryptoQuant contributor examined Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder P&L to Exchanges metric, which tracks whether recent buyers are sending coins to exchanges at a profit or a loss. Short-term holders tend to react quickly to fear-driven events and can amplify volatility.
According to the report, during a sharp market drop on Feb. 5–6, roughly 89,000 BTC were sent to exchanges at a loss within 24 hours—an episode described as capitulation from newer market participants. Since then, loss-driven inflows have steadily declined.
The recent geopolitical escalation involving the US and Iran acted as another stress test. Bitcoin briefly dipped toward the $63,000–$64,000 area, but exchange inflows from short-term holders did not spike. The report noted no surge in panic selling or aggressive profit-taking from this typically reactive group.
The implication is that markets may be stabilizing after forced selling has already played out. Continued low exchange inflows from short-term holders would be consistent with “seller fatigue,” while a renewed increase in realized losses would signal a return of stress.
Since January, Bitcoin has moved within a downward structure characterized by lower highs and lower lows. The recent rebound has been followed by consolidation rather than a strong directional trend.
Bollinger Bands indicate that Bitcoin touched the lower band around $64,400 before rising. At $67,300, it is trading near the middle band, while the upper band near $70,100 marks immediate resistance. A rejection in the $70,000–$71,000 zone would likely keep upside pressure limited, while a strong daily close above that area could shift short-term momentum.
The relative strength index climbed from oversold levels in the low 20s to around 47. Momentum is improving, though it has not moved above 50, a threshold often associated with stronger buyer control.
The current price structure was described as an impulse lower followed by sideways compression, which can develop into a bear flag. If that pattern resolves downward, a return to the low $60,000s becomes a plausible scenario based on the analysis.
Support is identified between $64,000 and $65,000. If that zone fails, the next psychological level near $60,000 could come into focus.
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