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Bitcoin rose 6.2% on February 25, closing the daily candle above $70,000, according to Bitstamp data. The advance came even after comments from U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer suggested tariffs on certain Chinese goods could increase from 10% to 15% in the coming days. Markets appeared largely unfazed, with the trade-war narrative having had less influence on crypto in recent months.
After weeks of selling pressure, BTC/USD has returned to one of the market’s most closely watched technical levels: the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), currently near $68,355. Historically, losing this level has been associated with extended bearish phases, while reclaiming it has often marked the early stages of longer-term recoveries.
Analysts said a weekly close above $68,355 is important to confirm strength. Without that weekly confirmation, the rebound could fade into another short-lived relief rally. They also noted that reclaiming the 200-week EMA rarely occurs cleanly; in prior recoveries, Bitcoin typically required multiple attempts and retests below the level before it became firm support. A single daily close above the EMA is not considered sufficient confirmation.
If support holds, traders are watching the $74,492 area as a potential upside objective. The level corresponds to the 2025 annual low and could act as a magnet if bullish momentum accelerates.
However, failing to secure a weekly close above $68,355 would keep downside risks active and reinforce a more cautious stance among technical traders.
Alongside the price action, a bullish divergence has emerged in the relative strength index (RSI) on the BTC/GOLD pair. While gold continues to trade near record highs above $5,000 per ounce, Bitcoin’s relative momentum appears to be improving.
If the divergence is confirmed, it could indicate the start of capital rotation from gold back into Bitcoin. Earlier in the year, Bitcoin’s pullback from its October 2025 peak had fueled arguments that it had lost its “digital gold” narrative and was behaving more like a risk asset. A sustained move higher from current levels would challenge that view.
For now, the outlook remains dependent on the weekly close, with the $68,355 zone described as the dividing line between renewed bullish structure and continued market fragility.
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