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Bitcoin exchange reserves have fallen sharply, while spot retail activity remains near recent lows. Despite the weaker retail backdrop, BTC traders may have reason to look for improvement as supply conditions tighten and sentiment indicators rebound.
Across exchanges, Bitcoin’s exchange reserves have been in freefall, reaching 2.683 million BTC in the latest reading. The figure is among the lowest reserve levels seen in recent months, down from close to 3 million BTC in late April–May 2025.
With fewer coins available on exchanges, the data suggests less immediate pressure to sell.
At the same time, price has recovered from an early February dip, and supply appears tighter. However, spot retail activity—tracked via trading frequency—has been the weakest it has been in the last year.
Retail participation fell after peaking when Bitcoin traded near its all-time high range, and it has not shown renewed strength since.
While retail activity remains subdued, Bitcoin’s Bull Score Index has improved. The latest reading is nearly 40, the highest level since October 2025.
This marks a notable turnaround from earlier this year, when the score briefly moved toward the lower end of the scale.
The article notes that readings above 60 have so far aligned with bullish phases, particularly during BTC’s rallies toward the $90,000–$120,000 range in 2024 and 2025.
The overall picture shows a contrast: exchange reserves are falling, indicating improving supply conditions, but the pace of demand—reflected in spot retail activity—has not yet fully returned. The article frames this as a potential transition out of a weaker phase rather than a confirmed breakout.
It adds that BTC would need Bull Score to reclaim 60+ levels in the sessions ahead for the market to “properly rise.”
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