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Bitcoin could be positioned for a major long-term rally if the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) valuation model remains valid, according to pseudonymous analyst PlanB. Under the model, Bitcoin could average around $500,000 during the current halving cycle between 2024 and 2028. The projection comes despite Bitcoin not trading near that level in recent days, though the cryptocurrency has recently reclaimed the $70,000 mark.
PlanB’s S2F framework does not suggest an immediate jump to $500,000. Instead, it indicates that the post-halving cycle from 2024 through 2028 could average around $500,000 if the model’s pattern continues. PlanB’s call is described as more aggressive than a simple forecast of a cycle top, because an average of $500,000 would imply Bitcoin spending substantial time above that price at some point during the cycle.
Bitcoin’s near-term trading has been volatile. Over the past week, it has swung between recovery and pressure, trading above $73,000 on March 5 before falling back toward the mid-$60,000s. It then rebounded again above $70,000 at the time of writing, highlighting the gap between current price levels and the $500,000 average implied by the S2F model.
PlanB’s technical analysis includes a chart that overlays Bitcoin’s price history with several indicators, including the 200-week moving average and realized cost price, alongside RSI coloring. The chart also shows a staircase-like Stock-to-Flow path, with a dotted S2F trajectory for the 2024–2028 halving window rising to around $500,000 in 2027.
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