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Bitcoin sentiment has shifted from “extreme fear” to FOMO after the price rebounded above $78,000, with traders focusing on the $80,000 resistance level. On Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high by June 30 is 3% (YES), unchanged from a week ago.
The sentiment shift is linked to easing Middle East tensions, including Iran’s opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which reduced geopolitical risk. Short liquidations helped push Bitcoin above $75,000. In Polymarket’s “Bitcoin All Time High by June 30” market, odds remain at 3% YES. The September 30 market is more optimistic at 11% YES.
The term structure shows an 8-point gap between the June and September contracts, suggesting traders expect potential catalysts later in the summer. Those catalysts could come from sustained price momentum or further geopolitical stabilization.
Liquidity indicators also point to sensitivity in pricing. Over the last 24 hours, $3,090 in USDC has been traded, and $1,592 is needed to move the June 30 odds by 5 points. The market appears thin, meaning a single larger order could noticeably affect quoted odds.
While FOMO could support additional buying, the current odds reflect skepticism about new highs by mid-year. At 3¢, a YES share pays 33x if Bitcoin hits a new peak by June 30. That outcome depends on continued geopolitical calm and bullish market conditions.
Specific items to monitor include Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin purchase updates, BlackRock’s ETF inflow reports, and any Federal Reserve rate cut signals.
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