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The market is once again questioning whether crypto has already formed a bottom. From a technical perspective, the debate is understandable: although Bitcoin (BTC) closed Q1 down 22.4%, price action in March showed resilience.
BTC still posted a 1.8% monthly return, and the price structure included a strong upside wick up to $76k, suggesting buyers remained active even during risk-off conditions.
More importantly, Bitcoin’s reaction in the first 24 hours after U.S. President Donald Trump’s ceasefire announcement added a new layer to the current setup.
According to CryptoQuant data, BTC moved back above the Traders’ Lower Realized Price ($69.4k). This effectively flipped a key on-chain level from resistance into support after several weeks of repeated rejection.
This metric is described as the average cost basis of recent market participants. A sustained move back above it is generally interpreted as a sign of improving market confidence.
In addition, Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Index also flipped positive following the ceasefire announcement, indicating stronger demand from U.S.-based investors.
Taken together, Bitcoin’s pre- and post-ceasefire price action is starting to look more constructive. The underlying logic is that resilience during periods of market fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) is encouraging more investors to return to unrealized gains territory—often associated with holding behavior rather than short-term distribution.
However, the technical picture is not fully resolved. Bitcoin remains more than 40% below its $126k peak, meaning a significant portion of market participants are still underwater. That keeps the central question open: whether the shift in positioning and sentiment is strong enough to mark a true structural bottom.
Even with the ceasefire bringing short-term relief, the market still appears fragile. In such conditions, even a small FUD-driven catalyst can be enough to trigger panic selling.
The article points to a recent whale move as an example. A user reportedly identified a Bitcoin whale linked to Eric Trump opening a highly leveraged 40x short position, with a liquidation level around $71.9k.
Despite this, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index reportedly did not move sharply. The index continues to hover around 45, described as a “neutral” zone that has historically been associated with accumulation phases.
The setup is further supported by reported institutional buying: BlackRock added $269 million worth of BTC inflows, and Strategy allocated $72 million.
From a technical standpoint, the position is described as already squeezed. Bitcoin closed the session after wicking up to $73k.
The article’s conclusion is that the move is not presented as random. Instead, it is framed as aligning with stronger on-chain signals and visible accumulation, reinforcing the idea that a bottom may be forming as market resilience starts to translate into technical gains.
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