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Bitcoin [BTC] has been on a bearish trend since October 2025. Since its all-time high of $126K, BTC has shed 46% of its value in just under six months, confirming a bear market. The debate has shifted from whether distribution is underway to how extensive it may become.
Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. found that large and mid-sized Bitcoin investors still hold around 68% of the BTC supply. At the same time, short-term holder drawdown has been elevated, and any price bounce is likely to face aggressive profit-taking and exits near breakeven. This dynamic has already appeared once, with BTC rejecting at the $76K resistance.
Bitcoin holdings rebalance has not yet begun. Investors were grouped by balance size, with cohorts holding between 100 and 10K BTC accounting for 68% of supply holdings. Smaller participants holding 10 BTC or fewer account for 17% of the supply.
For a structural shift, distribution from large and mid-sized investors and a rebalance among lower-balance cohorts are needed. Such a change would suggest broader distribution and a capitulation regime.
Another indicator pointing to a deeper reset is the UTXO Profit Count Percent, which measures the number of individual unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) worth more today than when they were last moved.
The 30-day and 365-day moving averages of this metric are 69.1% and 87.5%, respectively. This level underscores weakness, though it does not indicate a complete market reset. For context, the previous cycle’s 1-year moving average reached 55.7%.
In May 2019, the metric’s yearly average fell to 63.8%, which was well below the current 87.5% reading. The data suggests stress in the market and, by 365-day moving average standards, potential room for a fuller structural reset.
Founder and CEO of crypto intelligence platform Joao Wedson estimated the current cycle’s bottom by referencing post-halving bull market durations and historical bottom patterns. The analysis suggests the bottom could arrive 912–922 days after the most recent halving event.
On that basis, the estimated cycle bottom falls in late September to early October 2026.
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