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Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodities strategist Mike McGlone predicts Bitcoin will fall to $10,000, arguing that the crypto asset class is “dead” for institutional risk managers due to an unlimited token supply and sustained underperformance versus the S&P 500.
McGlone says $10,000 is the most widely traded Bitcoin price since the 2019–2020 period. He compares the level to crude oil, which has traded around $57 per barrel for nearly a decade. In his view, Bitcoin is likely to revisit $10,000 during a broader correction in risk assets.
McGlone previously called for Bitcoin to drop to $1,100 in 2018, when it traded at $10,000. He later said Bitcoin bottomed at about $3,000, describing his track record as “30% wrong, 70% right.” He became bullish in 2019 and predicted Bitcoin would exceed $100,000 in 2020 by “just adding a zero.”
McGlone now argues Bitcoin must “lop off a zero” from $100,000. Bitcoin is currently trading around $68,000, which he frames as roughly 32% correct so far, with the expectation that the stock market’s first 20% correction in years could drive the final move lower.
McGlone’s thesis is grounded in institutional risk management. He points to the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index’s long stretch of underperformance versus the S&P 500, noting it is down about 20% in 2025 and about 20% year-to-date in 2026.
He argues that when an asset class has an effectively unlimited supply of assets within the same space and poor index-level performance relative to a benchmark such as the S&P 500, there is no clear reason for institutional investors to allocate to it.
From a risk manager perspective, McGlone cites high correlation to equities, higher volatility, and worse performance over a five-year horizon.
He also highlights the growth in the crypto universe from one major cryptocurrency (Bitcoin) in 2009 to about 37 million today. While stablecoins have grown to $300 billion, he says other tokens “track nothing” and represent unlimited supply.
McGlone argues that correlations across markets have intensified. He cites the Market Vectors Digital Assets 100 Small Cap Index, which shows a 0.84 correlation with Bitcoin over 48 months, reversing earlier negative correlation.
He also notes that U.S. stock market capitalization to GDP has risen to 2.3 times, the highest in 100 years. In his framing, “Crypto led the way up in risk assets” and is now “leading the way lower.”
McGlone says Bitcoin would need to stay above $74,000 to prove him wrong, a level he recently lowered from $90,000.
McGlone expects a post-inflation deflationary period similar to China, citing a 10-year bond yield of 1.82% and 300% debt-to-GDP. He is bullish on U.S. Treasuries, saying they will “grab alpha” this year after Bitcoin dominated for most of the last decade and gold in 2025.
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