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Bitcoin’s relationship with the Federal Reserve has shifted in a way that appears more structural than coincidental. While a common short-form claim is that Bitcoin often falls after Fed meetings, a longer review of post-FOMC moves shows the market has increasingly displayed a clearer downside bias during 2024, 2025, and the opening stretch of 2026.
Looking back to the Federal Reserve’s 2020 FOMC schedule and extending through the current 2026 meeting calendar, the pattern changes over time. In earlier years, scheduled meetings did not consistently produce a repeatable directional outcome for Bitcoin. Over time, however, post-meeting weakness became more recognizable, particularly from 2024 onward.
In 2020, reactions were mixed and often depended on the broader macro context. For example, on June 10, 2020, Bitcoin fell into the following session, with BTC dropping from $9,870 to $9,321. Other meetings showed different behavior: July 29 finished roughly flat to up, November 5 held near highs, and December 16 opened the door to a strong continuation higher, with Bitcoin rising from $21,310 to $22,805 the next day and then to $23,137 a day later.
In 2021, the inconsistency persisted. January 27 was followed by a sharp rally, with BTC jumping from $30,432 to $34,316 by January 29. July 28 also pushed higher into month-end. By contrast, several meetings softened over the next one or two sessions, including March 17, April 28, June 16, November 3, and December 15.
Through 2022 and 2023, the article describes reactions as uneven, with post-FOMC moves often failing to produce a consistent bias.
The shift becomes more pronounced in 2024 and continues through 2025 and into 2026, where the article characterizes the pattern as increasingly resembling a downside follow-through after meetings.
The article also highlights a major upside exception in May 2025: Bitcoin rose from $97,032 on May 7 to $102,970 by May 9 (about 6.1%).
In the present year, two scheduled meetings have already taken place, with the next meeting set for April 28 to 29. The article cites daily close data showing continued weakness after the January and March meetings:
The article argues that Bitcoin increasingly trades within the same event-driven calendar framework that influences other major risk assets. As institutional participation deepened and macro desks paid closer attention, FOMC dates became more “known quantities” on the calendar—encouraging pre-positioning and de-risking behavior around the event window.
It also points to a structural feature of the Fed schedule: the Federal Open Market Committee holds eight regularly scheduled meetings each year. That recurring cadence concentrates attention and information into a predictable time window, which can make event-driven positioning more consequential for Bitcoin than in earlier cycles.
Across the 2020–2026 period described, Bitcoin did not sell off after every Fed meeting. However, the article concludes that the probability-weighted behavior has shifted: post-FOMC weakness has become more consistent during 2024, 2025, and early 2026.
For traders, the article frames this as a reason to include post-FOMC weakness in the playbook in a regime where recent history shows repeated downside follow-through. For investors and analysts, the broader takeaway is that Bitcoin’s reaction function increasingly resembles that of a more mature global asset—responding not only to policy outcomes, but also to the mechanics of event-driven positioning around the Fed’s scheduled meetings.
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