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Bitcoin has climbed back above $70,000 after weekend weakness, but on-chain data suggests the broader correction may not be over.
CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin is undergoing its longest period of decoupling from the S&P 500 since 2020.
While equities continued to perform, Bitcoin entered a downturn starting in October, diverging from its usual correlation with traditional markets.
The shift was triggered by a major liquidation event on Oct. 10, when roughly 70,000 BTC in open interest was wiped out, erasing months of positioning in a single session.
Since then, Bitcoin has remained under pressure amid geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty, even as equities initially held up.
The divergence suggests crypto may have already absorbed significant downside and highlights Bitcoin's tendency to react more sharply to global risk events.
According to More Crypto Online's Elliott Wave analysis, Bitcoin has completed a five-wave decline from its mid-March high, increasing the risk of further downside.
The most bearish scenario points to a potential bounce into the $70,500–$74,800 resistance zone, followed by a move lower toward $55,000–$56,000. A weak rebound would reinforce this outlook.
A bullish scenario remains possible but would require a strong break above resistance to regain momentum and target the $80,000 level.
In the near term, analysts say the next few days are critical, with price reactions around key support and resistance likely to determine Bitcoin's next move.
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