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Bitcoin appears relatively undervalued versus gold and the global money supply, a signal that could point to a potential price reversal, according to Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin technology firm Jan3.
In a Saturday post on X, Mow said Bitcoin is “about 24%-66% below its trend” relative to gold’s market capitalization or global money supply, while gold is “overextended.”
Mow also cited market pricing differences between gold and tokenized gold. Gold futures for April delivery closed Friday at $5,247.90, while PAX Gold USD (tokenized gold) was trading at $5,404.14 at the time of writing.
Mow referenced Bitcoin’s Z-score, a metric that measures how far BTC’s price deviates from its historical average. He noted that a Z-score of 0 indicates the price is in line with the average, while a Z-score above 0 suggests it is trading above average levels. A Z-score below 0 indicates the price is trading below average.
Mow said that when the Z-score of the BTC-to-gold ratio drops below -2, Bitcoin has previously seen “major” price rallies. At the time of writing, the Z-score of the BTC-to-gold ratio was about -1.24.
TradingView data cited by Mow shows the BTC-to-gold ratio Z-score dropped below -3 in November 2022, during the collapse of crypto exchange FTX. Over the following 12 months, Bitcoin rallied by over 150%.
Mow also pointed to a similar pattern during the Covid crash in March 2020, when the metric fell below -2. Bitcoin then reached a low of about $3,717, before surging by over 300% in the following 12 months. By November 2021, BTC reached an all-time high of about $69,000.
Mow’s analysis is described as contrarian to other analysts who expect more pain for the crypto market and a further decline in Bitcoin prices, citing investor uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.
Some crypto market analysts said Bitcoin may be headed toward $50,000, arguing that current price action could be mirroring the 2022 bear market.
They noted that Bitcoin fell by over 50% from peak to trough, reaching a low of $60,000, before a limited recovery to near $66,400 following weekend developments in the Middle East.
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