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At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at $78,127.14, giving traders and investors renewed optimism that the cryptocurrency would surpass the $80,000 mark.
Although BTC saw significant volatility in April, a longer view of the monthly price chart shows it has increased by more than 17% over the last month.
Despite the recent price momentum, BloFin Research said Bitcoin’s current cycle has “dramatically underperformed every prior one.” The assessment was based on the April 2024 halving, comparing the 2024 cycle with earlier cycles in 2012, 2016, and 2020. BloFin Research noted that the 2024 cycle featured fewer parabolic rallies and smaller price appreciation.
The 30-day Realized Volatility, which tracks Bitcoin’s actual day-to-day movement over the past 30 days, reflected a shift in market behavior. In 2020, the metric was 9.64%, signaling sharp daily fluctuations toward $69K during the massive bull market.
In 2024, realized volatility was lower at 3.11%. At the time of publication, it stood at 1.58%, indicating extremely compressed momentum.
The article attributed the lower volatility to several factors, including the Spot Bitcoin ETF launched in January 2024, which it said created institutional demand. It also cited a “Fed rate dilemma,” tensions in the Middle East, multiple regulatory reforms, and an “October 2025 crash” as additional influences.
While the article described the current environment as compressed, it also suggested that such conditions can create room for a breakout.
Some analysts are calling that the Bitcoin bottom is already in place and that a bullish price rally could be triggered soon. The article also referenced commentary from Peter Schiff, who remains critical of Bitcoin’s outlook.
On-chain and market indicators presented in the article were mixed:
However, the article cautioned that inherent demand conditions are still “too fragile” to confirm the start of a full bull cycle.
The article concluded that Bitcoin’s underperformance versus prior cycles may be linked to factors including Fed rate changes and geopolitical tensions. It also highlighted that a negative Funding Rate and an SOPR greater than 1 point to sharply divided market sentiment.
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