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Bitcoin analyst Aaron Dishner is warning that a significant pullback may be ahead after the cryptocurrency briefly pierced the $126,200 resistance level last week. Dishner, who posts on X under the handle @MooninPapa, says the failure to hold that level suggests a pivot high rather than a sustained breakout. He expects downside pressure to intensify through May and June, with several targets already outlined.
Dishner points to Bitcoin’s move through overhead resistance at $126,200 across Friday and Saturday, followed by a reaction that did not confirm a bullish takeover. In his view, the current market structure resembles a pivot high, with short-term support beginning to break down beneath it.
He also argues that the cycle’s momentum has already played out: RSI has “already did its job” within the current price sequence. Any bounce toward the $75,500 area, Dishner says, is more likely to function as a retest than a recovery. He frames $75,500 as a potential zone for continued selling pressure rather than a base for renewed upside.
“BTC pierced overhead resistance at 126,200 on Friday and Saturday, but the reaction since then still looks like a pivot high to me. The short-term support fan is starting to give way, RSI already did its job, and I still think any bounce toward 75,500 looks more like a retest…” — Aaron Dishner (@MooninPapa), April 20, 2026
Dishner’s broader outlook calls for “red conditions” through both May and June. He lists $60,000 as the first major downside target. If selling pressure persists, he sees $49,000 as a realistic follow-through level.
If a full bear-market unwind develops, Dishner’s deepest target is $38,555. While he notes that weekly TBT bullish divergences have appeared on Bitcoin and TOTALES, he does not treat those signals as evidence of a trend change.
Dishner cites stablecoin dominance as supportive of the bearish case into the anticipated pullback. He also references the OTHERS index, saying it has already been rejected at the top of the cloud, which he interprets as consistent with ongoing broad market weakness.
On Ethereum, Dishner says a weekly TBT bullish divergence has formed, but that price action has not been convincing. He still considers a move toward $1,000 possible for ETH, while arguing that the divergence alone is not enough to justify a bullish turn during what he views as a bottom year.
Macro conditions are also part of his risk framework. He says the DXY still appears capable of closing the gap at 99.516, which could weigh on risk assets. He adds that S&P futures look overly extended after a sharp reversal, NK225 appears stretched, and USDJPY remains a key risk factor if dollar strength returns.
Dishner says he is watching TAO but prefers to wait for Bitcoin to complete its pullback before taking a position.
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