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Citi raised its 2026 core earnings per share forecast for AstraZeneca PLC (LSE: AZN, NASDAQ: AZN) by 2% to $10.30 after the company beat first-quarter expectations. The bank maintained its buy rating, saying the risk-reward outlook remains positive heading into a set of second-half pipeline catalysts that it believes the market has not fully priced in.
Citi said AstraZeneca’s first-quarter results showed the breadth of its growth and pipeline, with the pharmaceutical group delivering roughly 2% ahead of consensus while leaving full-year guidance unchanged.
The revised $10.30 2026 forecast implies 12% growth on a constant-currency basis, which Citi said is consistent with consensus and at the top end of AstraZeneca’s own guidance range. Citi also nudged forecasts for 2027 to 2034 up by 1%.
Citi expects investor attention to shift toward second-half catalysts, highlighting three programmes it views as offering the most compelling risk-reward:
The bank also pointed to detailed data for two assets following first-quarter headline results:
Citi acknowledged risk around the SERENA-6 advisory committee meeting for Truqap, AstraZeneca’s breast cancer treatment. However, it said any downside would be limited to approximately 1% of the company’s net present value.
Citi noted that AstraZeneca still has 11 further Phase III readouts anticipated in 2026. It also said the lack of prior mid-30s margin guidance in the company’s results presentation did not appear to unsettle investors, adding that this was likely implied within AstraZeneca’s unchanged double-digit earnings growth guidance.
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