•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Over-concentration in a handful of large-cap stocks can create a paradox: the market may look positive at first glance, but many investors do not necessarily benefit, and some may still be losing money. The VN-Index posted its fifth consecutive up session, yet trading conditions were described as “green on the surface, red at heart.”
Vin-family stocks were a key driver of the index. At the close on April 16, the main index neared 1,820 points. Real estate and retail were exceptions, while other sectors were in the red. This marked the fourth up session in five, with the VN-Index relying heavily on large-cap stocks—especially Vin-family names—to lift overall performance.
Market concentration in a few large stocks has drawn renewed attention. The index’s recent moves have led some observers to describe it as effectively returning to a pre-period state, becoming a “VIN-Index” again. The concern is that outsized influence from large-cap stocks can raise market risk and potentially distort sustainable growth.
David Rabinowitz, Global Index and Asia-Pacific Market Structure Analysis Director at UBS, said this is not a Vietnam-only issue but a global one. Concentration in a small number of large stocks is also present in developed markets such as the U.S. and Australia. In such markets, FTSE indices incorporate concentration considerations to support stability. The key, Rabinowitz said, is not whether concentration exists, but how markets assess and manage the associated risk.
Among index families, including VN30, concentration factors have been calculated and controlled. For example, the financial sector currently accounts for about 27%, indicating ongoing sector diversification.
Analysts also pointed to differences across markets beyond market-cap size, including the free-float ratio and investors’ access.
Against the current backdrop, analysts noted rising price-supply pressure across many stocks and weakness across most sectors, even as the VN-Index and leading stocks move back toward historical highs.
Aseansc said the current price zone is nearing the next resistance around 1,810–1,820 after a long rally, and that liquidity has not broadened accordingly. It added that the 1,800 level is less suitable for new buying and is more appropriate for holding winning positions.
Investors were advised to continue reviewing portfolios, monitor money flow between sectors closely, and prioritize stocks with strong fundamentals for Q2 2026.
Nguyen Duy Anh, Head of Portfolio Management at Vietcombank Asset Management (VCBF), said Q2 investors should closely monitor tensions in the Middle East, which could weigh on market sentiment in the short term, alongside Q1 results and 2026 plans. He added that if companies maintain growth and present positive plans, market confidence could be reinforced.
Mirae Asset (MASVN) said structural growth drivers are still materializing as expected, and it also noted signs of market recovery. On March 23, the VN-Index rebounded after the P/E ratio reached the long-term average minus one standard deviation (about 14.4x). MASVN expects growth momentum to continue, with P/E around 16x—still attractive compared with the long-run average of 17x.
MASVN also referenced “countermeasures” based on historical patterns, noting that the current market structure resembles the volatility seen in April 2025. After an offset tax was announced on April 2, 2025, a one-week shock decline (April 2–8, 2025) saw P/E fall from 14.8x to 12.3x before recovering strongly to 17.3x.
Vietnam is expected to be positioned to capitalize on domestic growth drivers while balancing against rising external risks. MASVN maintained its forecast for 2026 earnings growth for listed companies at 20%, with the growth rate expected to be adjusted during the AGM season to reflect corporate plans.
Overall, analysts said investors should not view the market solely through the VN-Index. More important is to track where capital is actually flowing, which groups are being prioritized, and which stocks can attract funds. In a market that is rotating and screening aggressively, the “winner” is not necessarily the one holding the most stocks, but the one moving toward where money is going.
Premium gym chains are entering a “golden era” that is ending or already in decline, as rising operating costs collide with shifting consumer preferences toward more flexible, community-based ways to exercise. Long-term memberships are shrinking, margins are pressured by higher rents and facility expenses, and competition from smaller, more personalized…
