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CoinGecko’s latest quarterly analysis describes a sharp deterioration in the cryptocurrency market in early 2026, with the first three months of the year marking a transition from a correction into a “crypto winter.” Total crypto market capitalization fell 20.4%—a decline of $622 billion—to end March at $2.4 trillion.
The report attributes the bearish momentum to carryover from late 2025, alongside geopolitical tensions and a hawkish shift in U.S. monetary policy following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair.
Trading activity also weakened. Average daily trading volume across the market dropped 27.2% quarter-over-quarter to $117.8 billion.
Despite the broader downturn, stablecoins remained a relative source of stability and liquidity. Their combined market capitalization rose 0.5% to $309.9 billion.
Traditional commodities outperformed digital assets during the quarter. Crude oil surged 76.9%, driven by supply disruptions tied to the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict. Gold rose 8.1%, supported by central-bank buying and its safe-haven appeal.
Bitcoin, by contrast, fell 22%, underperforming even broader equities. The Nasdaq declined 7.1% and the S&P 500 dropped 4.8% in their weakest quarterly showing since 2022. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 1.4% as investors sought safety.
CoinGecko also highlighted a risk-off environment reflected in lower trading volumes on centralized exchanges. Spot volume on the top ten centralized exchanges fell 39.1% for the quarter to $2.7 trillion.
March alone recorded $0.8 trillion in spot volume, the lowest monthly total since November 2023. Binance led with a 37% share, while MEXC was the only other platform above 10%. Every major CEX saw steep declines.
On decentralized exchanges, Solana remained the leading chain for spot trading, holding 30.6% quarterly dominance even as its volume fell 26.5%.
Ethereum briefly overtook Solana in March, with 27% versus 26%. BNB Chain ranked second overall with 24.5% quarterly dominance. CoinGecko also noted that Monad climbed into the top ten chains as its mainnet activity gained traction.
A notable bright spot emerged in decentralized perpetual futures. Since Hyperliquid enabled commodity perpetuals through its HIP-3 proposal in December 2025, these contracts have gained rapid traction, reaching about 30% of the exchange’s total open interest.
CoinGecko pointed to rising demand for 24/7 oil trading amid Middle East tensions. On April 9, two crude-oil perpetuals from builder tradeXYZ exceeded $4 billion in daily volume, surpassing Bitcoin’s activity on the platform for the first time.
Overall, CoinGecko’s report characterizes the industry as both maturing and under pressure. While macro headwinds and geopolitics weigh on the sector, it says innovation continues—particularly in stablecoins and decentralized derivatives.
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