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CryptoQuant data shows 9.09 million bitcoins are currently “in the red” near $66,500, representing about 46% of circulating supply. The cohort was built by recent buyers who entered between roughly $80,000 and $108,000, and it is now underwater as Bitcoin trades well below those purchase levels.
CryptoQuant’s Supply in Profit/Loss chart tracks coins held at a loss as negative supply on the left axis. The deeper the shaded area below zero, the larger the portion of circulating supply that is underwater at current prices. The chart spans July 2020 through early 2026.
Historically, the metric’s deepest point is anchored in mid-2022, when it reached about negative 10 million bitcoins. That period followed the Luna and FTX contagion, during which Bitcoin fell from around $60,000 to below $20,000.
Today, the loss cluster is described as the second-deepest since 2022, sitting near negative 9.09 million. With Bitcoin trading around the mid-$60,000s, the loss reading remains elevated relative to the dataset’s earlier periods.
The 46% figure is framed against circulating supply of about 19.8 million coins. If roughly nine million bitcoins are held at a loss, that implies nearly half of Bitcoin that has moved on-chain is below its last transaction price.
CryptoQuant highlights an adjusted realized price near $72,700 as a key structural reference level. The report notes that below this threshold, the loss cohort is already visible in the current market structure.
High loss supply can shape market behavior in a relatively mechanical way. Underwater holders may face pressure to sell to cut losses or to reduce exposure during volatility. Those with the highest cost basis and the least conviction are typically more likely to sell first.
As that initial loss cohort is reduced, the remaining underwater holders can become more “concentrated” among stronger hands, which can shift the role of loss supply from an overhang toward a reset signal. The article also points to 2022 as an example: the loss supply peaked near 10 million coins in late 2022 and then declined as the market bottomed and recovery demand returned.
Whether the current loss reading peaks or continues to deepen is described as dependent on stabilization versus further downside at levels near $67,000.
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