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Dogecoin has been tightly consolidating below a pivotal resistance level since the start of the year, following a breakdown from a prior structure. The setup is being interpreted as potentially bearish in the short term, though the longer-term outlook is described as still bullish. New wallet addresses continue to emerge, and institutional exposure—reflected in rising ETF balances—appears to be building steadily.
The article links the current price behavior to a bearish structure that has deepened below a key resistance area. It notes that this divergence can indicate that, while the short-term trend remains bearish, accumulation may be occurring beneath the surface. A potential shift in market dynamics would require stronger price confirmation.
It cites historical patterns in which similar breakdowns led to sharp corrections of more than 70%. Based on that comparison, the article says continued selling pressure could push Dogecoin back toward the $0.07 level, with a deeper decline toward the $0.03–$0.04 range. Those levels are described as having last been seen in early 2021.
From a trader’s perspective, the structure remains bearish unless there is a clear shift. The article states that a sustained reclaim above the $0.18 resistance zone would be needed to invalidate the current downtrend. It also specifies that this would ideally be supported by rising volume and an RSI move above 50. Until those conditions occur, rallies are expected to face selling pressure, keeping the broader outlook tilted toward further downside.
On-chain data referenced in the article shows periodic spikes in new Dogecoin addresses, suggesting that new users continue to enter the network even during a downtrend. The article frames this as an early signal that underlying demand may not be fading, potentially setting up upward momentum once selling pressure weakens.
The article also points to a steady rise in Dogecoin holdings within US spot ETF structures. It describes this as consistent institutional accumulation despite the prolonged price decline. The divergence between price weakness and rising ETF balances is presented as important, with the article arguing that institutions often build positions during weakness rather than strength. If the trend continues, it could contribute to a supply squeeze over time and support a stronger recovery if sentiment changes.
Overall, the article characterizes the current price action as bearish while highlighting two factors that suggest an underlying bid for Dogecoin. It concludes that if DOGE price breaks out above key resistance, the market could quickly align with the bullish on-chain signals, potentially triggering a stronger recovery phase.
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