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eBay Inc (NASDAQ:EBAY, XETRA:EBA) reported first-quarter results that beat expectations, with gross merchandise volume (GMV) up 3% and guidance pointing to a second consecutive quarter of double-digit GMV growth.
GMV grew 14% in the first quarter on an organic, foreign-exchange neutral basis. The increase was driven largely by a 24% rise in “Focus Categories,” compared with 16% in the fourth quarter. Jefferies and other observers cited momentum across motor parts, fashion, and electronics, with both international and domestic GMV accelerating during the period.
For the second quarter, eBay guided to GMV growth of up to 10%. Jefferies said the figure implies deceleration, noting that one-time tailwinds—such as performance marketing efficiencies and the Klarna integration—are expected to fade, while bullion sales are anticipated to normalize from elevated levels.
Analysts are urging caution, warning of a potentially sharper slowdown in the second half of the year.
Jefferies maintained an Underperform rating on eBay while raising its price target to $65 from $60. The firm pointed to first-half strength but said long-term growth visibility remains limited.
On the second-half outlook, Jefferies highlighted that even after eBay raised its full-year 2026 GMV outlook to 7% to 7.5% growth on a constant-currency basis (up from a prior expectation of around 5.6%), reaching the high end of second-quarter guidance would still imply GMV growth of about 3% in the back half of the year.
Jefferies attributed the expected slowdown to tougher year-over-year comparisons and moderation of category-specific tailwinds, including elevated trading card and bullion sales.
Jefferies also flagged disappointment with eBay’s margin trajectory. The company guided for adjusted operating income growth of 9% to 11% for full-year 2026, which Jefferies said implies only 15 to 30 basis points of margin expansion.
The firm estimated that first-party advertising revenue, which grew 28% year-over-year, could have contributed roughly $100 million in incremental EBIT in the first quarter. Jefferies said that core reinvestment may be offsetting much of the benefit from top-line acceleration.
eBay said it plans to redirect some of the top-line upside into product development and marketing to support strategic priorities including C2C commerce, eBay Live, and vehicles.
Jefferies lowered its 2026 and 2027 EBITDA estimates by 4% and 2%, respectively. The firm now projects full-year 2026 EBITDA of approximately $3.04 billion, down from a prior estimate of $3.17 billion.
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