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Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), could decline by as much as 40% to around $1,200 in the coming weeks, according to a fractal setup shared by analyst Leshka.eth. The projection is tied to a Supertrend-based pattern that previously preceded steep selloffs, alongside concerns about macro conditions and whale distribution.
Leshka.eth’s $1,200 target is based on a Supertrend setup on the daily chart. The Supertrend is a trend-following line that changes color to reflect market direction—green when the trend is rising and red when it is falling.
The analyst noted that two earlier bullish flips failed to hold. In both cases, ETH moved above the Supertrend’s upper band, which then began acting as support. After ETH lost that support, the recovery unraveled and the token fell sharply:
Now, Leshka.eth says a similar setup is forming at $1,990. If $1,990 breaks, the next target is the $1,200 zone.
The $1,200 level also aligns with the measured downside target of Ethereum’s prevailing bear flag pattern, as referenced in the article.
The bearish setups are developing as Ethereum gives back gains from March amid a worsening macro backdrop. The article cites weakening risk appetite alongside the US–Israel and Iran war, rising recession fears, and bond traders no longer expecting the Federal Reserve to cut rates before December 2027.
In addition, ETH has fallen more than 17% from its monthly high reached over two weeks ago. Over the same period, US spot Ether ETFs recorded roughly $300 million in net outflows.
The article also states that apparent demand for Ethereum has slipped to its lowest level in 16 months.
Ethereum’s rebound has not triggered broad-based accumulation across major wallet cohorts, according to Glassnode data cited in the article.
Among mega-whale wallets holding more than 10,000 ETH, balances have flattened after peaking in late 2025. The 30-day change has only just returned toward neutral after months of decline, suggesting the largest holders have not been accumulating aggressively.
Similar patterns appear across smaller wallet cohorts:
Taken together, the data point to ongoing distribution and weak conviction across key ETH holder cohorts, which the article says could reinforce the case for a deeper drop if $1,990 breaks.
As noted in the article, one of the few bullish signs for Ethereum includes increasing amounts of Ether staked and a decline in supply on exchanges reaching ten-year lows.
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