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Bitcoin traded mostly around $74,000 on Wednesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. By press time, it had slipped below the $73,500 support level, putting a move toward $72,000 within reach.
The Fed is expected to keep the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75% while updating projections for inflation, growth, and unemployment. The outlook is being reassessed after the Middle East conflict pushed energy prices higher.
Attention is focused less on the policy rate itself and more on the Fed’s quarterly projections and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. Andre Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, said markets were pricing in no change from the Fed and would instead focus on forward guidance, the Summary of Economic Projections (“dot plot”), and comments about geopolitical risks and energy.
Despite President Donald Trump urging Powell to cut borrowing costs immediately, market pricing has moved in the opposite direction as oil prices surged and the inflation outlook worsened.
According to Reuters, futures markets now imply one quarter-point rate cut this year in September, followed by another in late 2027—an outlook described as far tighter than the White House has advocated.
For crypto traders, the meeting is a test of whether Bitcoin can extend its recovery back into the mid-$70,000s or whether a firmer Fed message keeps the market pinned below the next major options and psychological threshold near $80,000.
The Fed is entering the meeting with momentum already fading in the economy, and the conflict has added another inflation channel. US gasoline prices averaged $3.79 a gallon as of Tuesday, more than 25% above their level before the war began.
Economists expect the Fed to mark up inflation and unemployment forecasts and reduce its growth outlook. KPMG’s Diane Swonk said the policy debate has shifted from a relatively orderly easing discussion to a broader dispute over how much inflation risk the Fed can absorb.
Recent data reflect that tension. The Commerce Department reported core PCE inflation at 3.1% year over year in January, the highest reading since March 2024. Fourth-quarter GDP growth was revised down to 0.7%.
Labor indicators also softened: nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 in February and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The Fed is therefore balancing a jobs market losing momentum against an inflation trend that remains above target before any full pass-through from higher energy costs.
A second timeline is also in play. Powell’s current term as chair ends on May 15, 2026, while his term as a member of the Board of Governors runs until Jan. 31, 2028, according to the Federal Reserve.
Investors are factoring in uncertainty around a chair transition. Trump’s nominee, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, remains stuck in the Senate. Warsh’s nomination is on hold while a legal fight continues related to the Justice Department’s investigation of Powell. If Warsh is not confirmed by the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, Powell would continue leading rate-setting meetings even after his chair term ends.
That scenario could extend the period during which markets interpret policy through Powell’s framework, even as Trump continues to signal a preference for lower rates and a different leadership style at the Fed.
Bitcoin has rebounded from an earlier slide that pushed it under $60,000 this quarter, but it remains well below record levels seen late last year.
Citi set a 12-month Bitcoin target of $112,000, citing stalled progress on US crypto legislation and a narrower window for regulatory catalysts that could support ETF demand and broader institutional adoption. Citi also flagged $70,000 as an important level for BTC as it awaits policy and legislative direction.
Industry participants pointed to strengthening market structure. Wintermute said the setup was more constructive than it had been in months, citing the Coinbase premium reset, ETF inflows, and institutional desk flows. It added that the mid-$60s appeared to have attracted a real floor of institutional bids.
For context, Bitcoin ETFs are on their strongest inflow streak since last October, with seven consecutive days of positive cash additions totaling $1.1 billion.
Corporate buying has also continued. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) acquired more than 40,000 BTC this month, bringing its holdings to 761,068 Bitcoin. These purchases suggest large corporate buyers are still adding exposure at prices close to current trading levels despite unresolved rate uncertainty.
Beyond the $72,000 area implied by the loss of $73,500 support, the next derivatives reference point is near $80,000. CME Group noted in a March 6 market note that the $80,000 call strike carried high open interest, making it a focal level for market participants.
A move toward $80,000 after the Fed decision would likely draw more attention from options desks and short-term hedgers, particularly if Powell leaves room for easing later this year.
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