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On April 16, Deutsche Bank forecast that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in 2026, citing inflation risks from oil prices amid the Middle East conflict, resilient U.S. growth and a tight labor market that leaves limited scope for policy easing.
Deutsche Bank analysts said that for rates to be lowered this year, the U.S. labor market would need to soften somewhat and inflation would need to cool. The bank previously expected a single rate cut in September.
Other banks, including JPMorgan and HSBC, have also ruled out Fed cuts this year. By contrast, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and BofA Global Research still expect two rate cuts starting in September.
In recent days, some Fed officials have warned that the Middle East conflict is adding inflationary pressure. They also noted that heightened uncertainty makes it more difficult to communicate a clear policy path.
At the March policy meeting, the Fed kept the policy rate at 3.5%–3.75%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at the time that the impact of Middle East developments on the U.S. economy remains unclear, adding: “In the near term, higher energy prices will push inflation higher, but it is still too early to assess the scale and timing of potential effects on the economy.”
Fed officials forecast that policy could be eased later this year by 25 basis points. The next meeting is scheduled for the end of April.
LSEG data show markets are pricing in nearly a 70% chance that the Fed will not cut rates this year. Deutsche Bank also said that while the probability of a rate hike this year is “not low anymore,” it does not expect a hike to occur in 2026.
Premium gym chains are entering a “golden era” that is ending or already in decline, as rising operating costs collide with shifting consumer preferences toward more flexible, community-based ways to exercise. Long-term memberships are shrinking, margins are pressured by higher rents and facility expenses, and competition from smaller, more personalized…
