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Bitcoin’s February slide was sharp but not terminal, according to a report published by Finestel and shared with crypto.news. The move was driven by macro shocks, a hawkish pivot in Federal Reserve expectations, and geopolitical risk, but professional positioning suggests money largely cushioned the decline rather than exiting the market entirely.
Bitcoin opened February near $78,600, briefly pushing $79,300 before losing the critical $74,500 support. It then cascaded to roughly $60,000–$62,000 during the February 5–8 window, described as the most volatile stretch since the “1010 incident,” with intraday swings topping 25%.
From peak to trough, BTC fell about 12.8% month-on-month, marking its sixth straight weekly red close. Despite the drop, Bitcoin remained up strongly versus about $41,000 in January 2025 and was still 46% below its October 2025 all-time high near $126,000.
Ethereum followed a similar pattern, dropping from around $2,550 to $1,800 before recovering to roughly $2,150. That translated into a 15.7% monthly decline.
Total crypto market capitalization shrank from about $2.95 trillion to a $2.41 trillion low, echoing stress seen in early 2022 as financing deals stalled and sentiment flipped to “extreme panic.”
On-chain data cited from Glassnode and other analytics firms indicates the selloff resembled historic capitulation rather than a shallow dip. Roughly 641,000 BTC moved at a loss during the crash, described as the second-largest single-day realized loss on record.
Of those loss-making exits, 77.5% came from short-term holders who bought between $75,000 and $97,000 and capitulated as prices fell. This created a “liquidity vacuum” between $70,000 and $82,000, where few addresses now hold cost basis—meaning any rebound into that range could face heavy resistance from trapped buyers seeking to exit.
A thinner but important support shelf emerged in the $63,000–$64,000 zone. The report also noted that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs flipped to a net $787 million inflow in the final week, suggesting institutional dip-buying even as retail de-risked.
Finestel attributed much of the damage to macro forces. President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair was described as hardening expectations for tighter policy, higher real rates, and slower balance-sheet support—conditions viewed as negative for liquidity-sensitive assets like Bitcoin.
The report also cited sticky inflation, stronger-than-expected labor data, and a 10% blanket U.S. import tariff as contributing to a more stagflationary, trade-fractured backdrop.
Despite the pressure, Nvidia’s February 25 earnings were cited as a turning point for risk sentiment. Nvidia posted record quarterly revenue of $68.1 billion, up 73% year-on-year, which helped reignite the AI trade, lift U.S. equities, and pull BTC back toward the $70,000 level by February 26.
Rather than abandoning crypto, the report says professional asset managers moved defensively. Finestel’s February allocation data showed BTC and ETH core holdings nudged up to about 53–53.5% of portfolios, framed as a “flight to quality” approach while leverage was reduced to roughly 1.1–1.2x and value-at-risk tightened from about 7% to 6%.
Stablecoin allocations increased toward 25%, while velocity fell 22%, which the report interpreted as managers preferring to hold dry powder instead of chasing rebounds. Exposure to DeFi/RWA was trimmed by about 1 percentage point, even as some capital rotated into better-collateralized real-world asset plays.
Derivatives data cited in the report reinforced the cautious stance. Implied volatility rose by about 35% into the Nvidia and FOMC window, with puts dominating roughly 65% of March expiries. Futures open interest fell by about 22%, and more than $4.8 billion of mostly long positions were liquidated.
The report said this environment pushed traders toward defined-risk option structures and hedging rather than leveraged directional bets.
For March, the report frames the outlook as macro-driven. It points to a March 18 FOMC meeting expected to keep rates near 3.5–3.75% while updating the 2026 dot plot, alongside fresh CPI/PPI data on March 13 and ongoing tariff and geopolitical noise.
The report says these factors will determine whether $60,000 holds as a cyclical floor or whether renewed earnings or geopolitical shocks could push prices toward $55,000.
It also notes potential supports for a grind higher—such as a dovish Fed surprise, better-than-feared growth data, and regulatory catalysts including progress on U.S. tokenization rules—potentially enabling a move toward $70,000–$100,000 into quarter-end. For now, the report’s conclusion is that February’s message was blunt: crypto remains under pressure from rates, war, and real-world cash-flow narratives, and only positions with stable dry powder and strict risk controls were positioned to endure the flush.
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