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There are no signs that the situation will improve in the near term. In the context of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, United Airlines chief executive Scott Kirby told ABC News that airfares will need to rise by 20% to offset fuel costs, which have already risen more than 70% since the start of the conflict.
Katy Nastro, an analyst from Going.com, said it is “not surprising” that airlines seek to minimize the impact of rising costs by passing a portion on to consumers. She noted that history has shown this approach is common when major cost components increase.
Alton Aviation Consultancy, using Cirium data and information from online travel agencies, reported that the average fare in June on the seven most popular routes across the Asia-Pacific and Europe region rose about 70% year on year.
The average fare from Sydney to London has surpassed $1,500, nearly double the level a year earlier. The figure includes direct, one-stop, and layover flights through Gulf airports. Prices are expected to remain about 30% higher than last year through October.
Return-leg pricing has also strengthened. June fares from Europe to Asia rose 79% year on year, and the cost of some long-haul flights is nearly three times last year’s level.
Travel demand has started to weaken due to uncertainty and high prices. Cirium said summer bookings from Europe to the U.S. are down about 15% versus last year, while bookings in the opposite direction are down 11%. Bookings from Asia to Europe are also down 4.4%, including layovers through the Middle East.
Brian Terry, CEO of Alton Aviation Consultancy, said: “What we are witnessing is not just a temporary price shock. Even when the near-term disruption subsides, longer routes, constrained capacity and high fuel costs will continue to push prices higher for a long time.”
Flights between Asia and Europe have been hardest hit, with a substantial share routing through major Middle East hubs such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha. Based on Cirium data and other sources, the average fare from Hong Kong to London Heathrow reached $3,318 as of March 23, up 560% from the previous month.
Other examples include fares from Bangkok to Frankfurt, which surged 505% to $2,870, and Sydney to London, which rose 429% in the same period.
Thai Airways is expected to raise fares by 10% to 15%. Cebu Pacific (Philippines) has raised fares by 20–26% for itineraries from now through May. AirAsia X (Malaysia) has applied temporary adjustments across its network.
Cathay Pacific, on March 26, announced it would increase fuel surcharges for all flights by 34% from April 1 and review the increases every two weeks.
In Vietnam, a quick survey conducted on March 20 by the Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam with nearly 40 international and regional airlines operating to and from Vietnam found that more than 60% of carriers have, are, or plan to apply fuel surcharges or adjust ticket prices since mid-March.
Regionally, airlines in Northeast Asia (China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan) reported surcharges commonly ranging from 300,000 dong to nearly 3 million dong per ticket. For mid-length routes to Europe and North America, surcharges commonly range from 1 million to over 5 million dong, and even higher for the premium cabin.
Most recently, a report from the Ministry of Construction dated March 25 proposed applying fuel surcharges to domestic air tickets from April 1 to June 30, 2026. Under the proposal, fuel surcharges would be calculated on top of the current domestic fare cap and adjusted flexibly based on Jet A-1 prices in Singapore. The surcharge would be determined based on the difference between actual fuel costs and a baseline of 90 USD per barrel.
For short-haul routes of 500–850 km (for example Hanoi–Da Nang), if fuel is priced at 220 USD per barrel, passengers could pay an additional about 297,000 dong per ticket. The economy fare could rise from 2.89 million dong to over 3.16 million dong. If fuel exceeds 250 USD per barrel, the surcharge would rise to 365,000 dong, pushing the fare to around 3.255 million dong.
For routes of 1,000–1,280 km (e.g., Hanoi–Ho Chi Minh City), surcharges would range from 450,000 to 553,000 dong per ticket. The current cap of 3.4 million dong could rise to nearly 4 million dong. For longer routes over 1,280 km (such as Hanoi–Phu Quoc), surcharges could range from 553,000 to 680,000 dong per ticket, potentially lifting the maximum fare to about 4.55–4.68 million dong.
The Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam proposed applying fuel surcharges to domestic tickets from 1/4 to 30/6/2026.
From April, Vietnamese airlines began adjusting networks and capacity, focusing on core routes like Hanoi–Da Nang–Ho Chi Minh City and routes meeting essential economic and social needs.
By contrast, many domestic routes with low seat utilization, especially at night or on off-peak or branch routes, have seen frequency reductions or service suspensions due to costs not being offset. Vietnam Airlines, for example, officially halted routes from Cat Bi to Buon Ma Thuot, Cam Ranh, Phu Quoc and from Ho Chi Minh City to Van Don, Rach Gia, Dien Bien from April 1.
With fuel prices fluctuating between 160–200 USD per barrel, Vietnam Airlines expects to cut more than 700–1,700 flights per month depending on the scenario in Q2 2026, corresponding to 10–20% cancellations. International routes are expected down 4–18% and domestic down 12–26%.
VietJet plans to cut 18% of total network throughput in April (domestic down 22% and international down 11%). Routes such as Hanoi–Cam Ranh are reduced to 25 weekly flights (down 24), Hanoi–Buon Ma Thuot to 14 weekly flights (down 14), and Ho Chi Minh City–Cat Bi to 35 weekly flights (down 25).
Bamboo Airways is expected to operate only 15–17 flights per day (more than 50% below the current 35–36 flights per day) from April, focusing on Quy Nhon and core routes.
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