•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
The global oil supply has fallen in value by more than $50 billion since the US-Iran conflict began more than seven weeks ago, reflecting the volume of oil that would have been produced and supplied to the global market absent the disruption. Analysts say spillover effects are likely to persist for months, and possibly years.
After signs of easing last week, tensions between the United States and Iran heated up again late this weekend. Iran announced the closure of the Hormuz Strait one day after stating it would reopen the sea lane. The United States continues to blockade Iranian ports in the Hormuz area and has seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship.
President Donald Trump has also continued to threaten restarting attacks on Iran. A two-week ceasefire between Washington and Tehran is set to expire at midnight on April 21, US time.
Reuters, citing data from ship-tracking firm Kpler, reported that since hostilities began on February 28, flows of crude oil and condensates to the global market have fallen by more than 500 million barrels.
Reuters’ estimates indicate that 500 million barrels of oil and condensates have been blocked from global markets for more than seven weeks. The figure is described as equivalent to about one month of US oil demand, more than one month of Europe’s oil demand, or nearly six years of US military fuel demand based on annual consumption of about 80 million barrels in fiscal 2021.
Johannes Rauball, a senior analyst at Kpler, said the supply loss is valued at about $50 billion, based on oil prices averaging around $100 per barrel since the conflict began.
In March, Gulf-region countries recorded an oil-output loss of about 8 million barrels per day, nearly equal to the combined daily output of ExxonMobil and Chevron.
Kpler data cited by Reuters showed that exports of aviation fuel from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Oman fell from about 19.6 million barrels per day in February to 4.1 million bpd in March and April.
Reuters said the aviation-fuel supply damage is equivalent to fuel for 20,000 round-trip flights between JFK in New York and Heathrow in London.
Analysts said that even if the Hormuz Strait reopens, recovery of Middle Eastern supply is likely to be slow. Global crude stocks have fallen by about 45 million barrels in April, according to Kpler.
Since late March, wartime production losses have risen to roughly 12 million barrels per day. Rauball said heavy crude fields in Kuwait and Iraq could take 4–5 months to return to normal production, keeping global oil inventories under pressure into the summer.
The damage to Gulf refiners and Ras Laffan’s gas-production facilities in Qatar from the attacks suggests the region’s oil-and-gas infrastructure will take many years to recover to prewar levels.
Premium gym chains are entering a “golden era” that is ending or already in decline, as rising operating costs collide with shifting consumer preferences toward more flexible, community-based ways to exercise. Long-term memberships are shrinking, margins are pressured by higher rents and facility expenses, and competition from smaller, more personalized…
