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Gold prices have recently fallen as conflicts escalate and oil prices rise, suggesting that risk has already been priced into the market. An expert cited interest rates, exchange rates, and capital flows as the main pressures that could push gold toward a correction and create a “double risk” for investors.
In a talk show titled “Gold Prices and the Middle East Conflict” on the Financial & Business channel, Mr. Nguyễn Minh Tuấn, CEO and co-founder of the Vietnamese Financial Advisory Community (VWA) and CEO of AFA Capital, said investors should analyze world gold prices separately from domestic prices.
Using the World Gold Council framework, gold prices are influenced by five factor groups: two positive factors (market momentum and risk) and three negative factors (interest rates, exchange rates, and growth).
From now through 2026–2027, geopolitical risk remains a major variable, but the expert highlighted interest rates and exchange rates as the factors to watch most closely. Recent price behavior has been “counterintuitive”: conflicts escalate and oil prices rise, yet gold falls—and the reverse can also occur.
The expert attributed this pattern to the market having priced in risk to some extent, shifting the key drivers toward capital costs and cash flows. Data referenced in the discussion show that while the forecast model points to a decline, the actual decline has been larger. Interest rates and inflation expectations—linked to oil price movements—contributed about 4% of the drop, while cash-flow momentum accounted for up to 7.6%. The gap between the model and observed outcomes is about 5%.
Mr. Tuấn said investors should not rely only on geopolitical risk to forecast gold. When markets become accustomed to instability, the leading drivers tend to shift toward interest rates, exchange rates, and cash flows. The World Gold Council also notes that in weekly or monthly analyses, interest rates are typically the dominant factor because gold does not generate income and is directly affected by the cost of capital.
The discussion also pointed to the relationship between oil and gold. A 10-year correlation analysis suggests oil and gold tend to move inversely in the short term (1–3 months). Higher oil prices can raise inflation, push interest rates higher, and reduce gold’s appeal.
Based on the analysis, the expert said forecasting gold prices for 2026–2027 should focus on U.S. monetary policy—particularly the ability to control inflation and the Fed’s policy path. He also noted that human factors, such as the possible appearance of a new Fed chair, could influence policy.
Gold prices in Vietnam and globally are currently diverging by about 10%. In Vietnam, the biggest issue is the gap versus world prices. The typical gap is about 17–20 million dong per tael, which is more than 10%.
The expert said there have been periods when domestic and global gold prices were nearly aligned, but recently the gap has widened significantly, increasing risk for gold holders in Vietnam.
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