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April’s Bitcoin rally was driven largely by speculative leveraged trading rather than sustained spot buying, according to analysts at CryptoQuant. The firm says futures demand rose while real spot demand contracted throughout the month—an imbalance that has historically preceded sharper pullbacks.
Bitcoin rose about 20% in April, climbing from roughly $66,000 to a monthly peak near $79,000. CryptoQuant’s weekly report, released Thursday, attributes the entire price advance to growth in perpetual futures demand, while spot demand—reflecting genuine coin accumulation—remained in negative territory during the rally.
CryptoQuant’s apparent demand metric, which tracks the 30-day change in estimated on-chain spot buying activity, did not turn positive at any point during April’s price surge.
The report frames the futures-versus-spot divergence as a warning sign. Rallies supported by spot demand typically reflect buyers taking delivery of Bitcoin, while rallies supported by perpetual futures can reflect traders placing leveraged bets on price direction without necessarily holding the underlying asset. When futures positioning unwinds, prices often fall, sometimes quickly.
CryptoQuant points to a similar demand signature at the start of the 2022 bear market: perpetual futures demand increased while spot apparent demand contracted simultaneously. In that earlier episode, the setup preceded a multi-month decline in which Bitcoin eventually lost roughly 70% of its value from its peak.
Bitcoin has already started to retrace from its April high, sliding to around $76,400. CryptoQuant describes this pullback as consistent with the historical fragility of rallies led by futures when spot-demand confirmation is absent.
The firm also highlights its Bull Score Index, a composite of on-chain and market indicators rated on a scale of zero to 100. The index fell from 50 to 40 during April, dropping back below the neutral threshold into bearish territory. CryptoQuant notes the index briefly reached 50 in mid-April before retreating as speculative activity peaked and then faded.
CryptoQuant stopped short of predicting a full market reversal, but its message is cautious: without a shift in apparent demand from negative to positive, any attempt to retake the $79,000 peak would lack the on-chain foundation needed for a durable breakout.
Separately, users on Myriad—a prediction market operated by Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan—remain bullish on Bitcoin’s short-term prospects. They have priced in a more than 70% chance that the next move will be a rise to $84,000 rather than a drop to $55,000.
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