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Gold could double to $8,900 per ounce by 2030, according to bold projections in Incrementum AG’s annual “In Gold We Trust” report released at the end of May 2026. The report argues that gold is undergoing a renewed “monetization” process and is returning to the center of the global monetary system.
Incrementum’s outlook is built on three main pillars.
The report says central banks have been purchasing gold at unprecedented rates. It notes that net purchases exceeded 1,000 tonnes for three consecutive years from 2023 to 2025, describing this as a record pace. Buying has also broadened geographically, moving from China and Russia to Western countries.
Incrementum interprets this as evidence that the global monetary order is shifting, with gold re-emerging as a neutral reserve asset and challenging the dominance of the USD.
Incrementum points to global debt of $348 trillion, with US debt above $39 trillion. It adds that even after inflation adjustments, government bond yields remain deeply negative, which it says can encourage investors to seek gold as a store of value.
The report highlights a large discrepancy between gold’s market price and the US Treasury’s book value. It states that gold trades around $4,500 to $4,600 per ounce, while the US Treasury book value is $42.22 per ounce—creating a gap of more than $1 trillion between book value and market value.
Incrementum argues that if the US were to align its book price with the market, it could enable a dramatic revaluation of “paper wealth” without new money or additional debt. The report describes this as increasingly plausible rather than purely speculative.
Incrementum says gold is not yet a crowded investment channel. It estimates private ownership accounts for about 2.7% of global financial assets, leaving room for institutional investment to expand.
For the near term, the report expects gold to fluctuate roughly between $4,500 and $4,950 per ounce, followed by a stronger rally in the latter half of the year. It also frames pullbacks as potential buying opportunities, describing gold as a monetary asset re-monetization rather than only a commodity or temporary safe haven.
Incrementum’s $8,900 per ounce target by 2030 is contingent on continued central bank net buying, ongoing global debt expansion, and whether the US pursues a revaluation of its gold holdings.
Source: Tử Huy (via Shanghai Metals Market).
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