Gold prices end the week higher on global markets as domestic prices hold steady

Spot gold closed the week at 4,747 USD per ounce, up about 1.6% from the prior week and extending a three-week rally. Prices briefly moved above 4,800 USD after the United States and Iran reached a two-week ceasefire, but the move could not be sustained.

Ceasefire optimism meets fragile outlook

Analysts said gold’s technical outlook has improved, but uncertainty remains high and could keep prices below 5,000 USD per ounce into next week. In a Kitco News interview, Christopher Vecchio, head of futures strategy and forex at Tastylive, said the ceasefire is still fragile and it is too early to judge whether it will lead to lasting peace.

“I’m not that excited about gold given the hidden volatility.”

“The market needs a breakthrough to push higher.”

Vecchio said he remains optimistic about gold’s long-term outlook but sees limited near-term trading opportunities.

ETF demand and the need for certainty

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, also cautioned on gold. He said he felt relief from the recent rebound and noted rising ETF demand, but added that the market needs clearer signs that the Middle East conflict is nearing an end.

“We need certainty that the Middle East conflict is nearing an end, and only then will the recent upside dynamics reaffirm themselves, aided by negative economic consequences pushing the Fed toward rate cuts.”

Inflation fears remain a key driver

In the short term, analysts pointed to inflation concerns as a major factor influencing gold. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.9% in March, up from 0.3% in February. While inflation increased sharply, the gain was smaller than economists’ expectations of around 1%.

Roukaya Ibrahim, chief commodities strategist at BCA Research, said she is tactically cautious on near-term gold because markets are pricing in inflation risk. She added that gold could regain appeal as a safe-haven asset if inflation begins to affect growth.

“Currently, geopolitical risk is mainly an inflation shock. That leads investors to price in higher rates or lower expectations for rate cuts.”

“But if this continues, it will become a growth shock and push rates lower.”

Rate-cut expectations and gold’s next catalyst

While the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a neutral stance at least through the summer, TD Securities analysts said there is still room for two 25 basis point rate cuts in the second half of 2026 as inflation normalizes.

“We expect the Fed to be patient because the ultimate impact of the Middle East conflict has yet to be fully absorbed by the U.S. economy. We still see room for two cuts in the second half of 2026 as inflation returns to normal,”

the analysts said in a note.

Analysts also expect gold to build upside momentum once markets shift toward a growth-prioritizing Fed policy rather than focusing primarily on inflation.

Vietnam market: gold prices steady on April 11

On April 11, gold prices in early morning trade were flat versus the previous close as major players held their listed prices. Gold bars at SJC, PNJ, DOJI, Bao Tin Minh Chau, and Bao Tin Manh Hai remained at 169.7–172.7 million VND per tael (buy–sell), indicating price stability and no brand differentiation.

In the bullion coin segment, SJC quoted 169.4–172.4 million VND per tael, PNJ at 169.2–172.2 million VND per tael, while DOJI, Bao Tin Minh Chau, and Bao Tin Manh Hai maintained 169.7–172.7 million VND per tael.