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Gold remains a promising investment channel in the medium term, supported by prolonged geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures. However, prices have recently eased as the US dollar strengthened, with global gold falling below the 5,000 USD per ounce level during the morning session of March 16 before returning to around 5,000 USD/ounce. The move coincided with the Middle East conflict entering its third week and oil prices rising after attacks on critical energy infrastructure over the weekend.
On March 16, world gold prices dipped below 5,000 USD per ounce in the morning session, then moved back to the 5,000 USD/ounce level. In Vietnam, SJC gold bars were quoted by SJC at 179.6–182.6 million dong per tael in the buy-sell spread during the morning of March 16. Domestic gold prices fell to the lowest level since the Middle East conflict broke out.
Financial expert Phan Dung Khanh said the current gold price trend is strongly influenced by changes in investment perspectives and the ongoing strengthening of the US dollar. He noted that despite continued geopolitical risk in the Middle East and strong demand from both institutions and individuals, gold has not been able to break out.
Khanh argued that this dynamic suggests gold—traditionally viewed as a safe haven—may be behaving as a riskier asset after reaching peaks over the past three years. As a result, capital may be shifting toward newer safe-haven channels such as the US dollar.
Vice Chairman and Director of the Investment Research Division at CTCP FIDT, Bui Van Huy, said the decline in global gold prices is mainly due to the strength of the US dollar. He pointed to two core reasons for the USD-Index moving above 100: increased use of the dollar for trading oil and weapons and the perception of the dollar as a safe haven, alongside persistent inflation concerns that have shifted market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting path.
From a market standpoint, Nguyen Quang Huy, CEO of the Khoa Tai chinh - Ngân hàng program at Nguyen Trãi University, said a drop in gold after a long rally is not unusual. He described it as a necessary adjustment to rebalance the market and establish a new price level before the next trend forms.
He cited several factors behind the movement. First, global financial market dynamics—especially the dollar’s strength—can weigh on gold because gold is priced in USD, making it more expensive for holders of other currencies and dampening short-term demand. Second, US Treasury yields remain high, which can increase the attractiveness of income-producing assets such as bonds and raise the opportunity cost of holding gold. Third, profit-taking after a prolonged rise can trigger short-term swings while helping the market absorb supply and reset toward a more sustainable balance.
The market is also monitoring Fed policy signals. If rate expectations remain elevated for an extended period, gold may face continued pressure. Conversely, signals that the rate cycle could change could have a strong impact on the metal’s direction.
Whether the recent decline is a prelude to a new upward cycle remains uncertain, but some experts view the fall as a technical correction rather than a reversal of the long-term trend. Nguyen Quang Huy said the medium-term outlook depends on factors including the Fed’s monetary policy direction, movements in the USD and US Treasury yields, and geopolitical developments such as Middle East developments or Russia-Ukraine dynamics.
In addition to macro factors, the market is paying attention to central bank gold-buying signals. Many countries have increased gold reserves in recent years to diversify assets and mitigate risks from global currency fluctuations; if this trend continues, it could provide support for gold in the medium and long term.
Domestically, actions by the State Bank of Vietnam to stabilize the market could also affect the SJC gold price, particularly given the ongoing gap between domestic and world prices. The market, however, needs time to determine the trend.
Cát Lam — Fili
10:31 16/03/2026
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