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Achieving two-digit GDP growth in the 2026–2030 period will require a large volume of capital, while the economy remains heavily dependent on bank credit. Developing the capital market is therefore described as a “survival-level” requirement. The article notes that 80% of the required capital must be mobilized from non-budget sources.
With monetary policy space narrowing, diversifying funding sources—especially medium- and long-term capital—has become urgent. In 2025, the financial market mobilized more than 1.15 quadrillion dong, including bonds of over 1 quadrillion dong and equities of more than 150 trillion dong. However, the article says these totals still fall short of the economy’s large funding needs.
By the end of March, credit growth was about 2.45%, while capital mobilization stood at around 0.31%. The article highlights a gap between banking-system credit expansion and capital mobilization.
Data cited in the article show that by the end of 2024, credit grew 19.07% while mobilization increased by about 14.5%. By the end of March, credit was up about 2.45% but mobilization was only about 0.31%, indicating liquidity risk and strong pressure on banks to supply capital.
Although the banking sector pledges to continue meeting the economy’s capital needs, the article argues that heavy reliance on credit makes the current growth model unsustainable. It therefore frames capital-market development—particularly medium- and long-term funding channels—as the inevitable direction.
The article says that despite measures to upgrade the stock market, its scale remains limited. Excluding bank bonds, corporate bonds account for only around 20%, which it describes as an imbalance in medium- and long-term funding.
It also cites a view that the bond channel has recovered, but excluding banks its value remains limited. While some argue that capital mobilization is difficult in Vietnam, the article states that reforms could enable greater mobilization.
Ms. Pham Thi Thanh Tam, Deputy Head of the Financial Institutions and Financial Market Department at the Ministry of Finance, said policy will focus on major pillars: expanding the Government bond market, restructuring the corporate bond market, and developing long-term institutional investors such as securities investment funds, pension funds, and insurance companies.
The article also notes the need to reduce dependence on credit and rebalance the flow of funding.
Mr. Nguyen Quang Thuan, Chairman of Fiingroup, estimates next-phase capital needs at around 8 quadrillion dong per year. He argues that while large-scale public investment is substantial, bank credit has limited room, and investment in major projects should rely on medium- and long-term capital.
He expects FDI to remain positive, notes that MA activity is not insignificant, and says IPOs last year were large. He links continued growth to medium- to long-term capital, adding that when Vietnam is upgraded it may attract funds and support more vibrant IPO activity and equity exits.
Mr. Thuan emphasizes that the core issue is not only mobilizing more capital but also improving how it is used. He calls for reforms to the capital market, deepening the corporate bond market, broadening non-bank corporate participation, and diversifying debt securities. Improving Vietnam’s credit rating is also presented as a key factor to reduce funding costs.
Mr. Nguyen Ba Hung, Chief Economist of the Asian Development Bank in Vietnam, argues that improving capital mobilization requires focusing on developing the bond market. He describes the bond market as an effective channel for long-term funding, but says it has not developed to its potential in Vietnam.
By end-2025, the article states that bank credit stood at about 145% of GDP, while the corporate bond market accounted for only about 10% of GDP. It says this gap shows the economy depends heavily on the banking system for capital.
It further notes that around 40% of bank lending is long-term, while roughly 60% of GDP is associated with the overall funding need, placing pressure on the financial system because banks are more suited to short-term lending.
According to Mr. Hung, developing a balanced mix between bank credit and the bond market would mobilize resources more effectively for growth, reduce pressure on the banking system, and enhance financial stability.
The article also mentions a proposed path of State-led formation of large-scale investment funds to provide long-term capital for infrastructure projects, including a national growth fund. It says some countries have used similar approaches to directly support long-term capital mobilization for high-growth objectives.
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