•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Asian economies are bracing for heavier spillovers from rising prices as the Middle East conflict risks dragging on and triggering a broad growth shock. The region remains particularly vulnerable due to its heavy reliance on energy imports from the Middle East.
Officials from Australia to Bangladesh warned that sharply higher import costs could push inflation well above forecasts made only a few weeks earlier.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) said the crisis is becoming more serious and is affecting the region. ADB President Masato Kanda said the impact is not limited to temporary volatility, adding that the region faces “systemic, long-lasting disruptions to energy networks and global trade.”
Amid growing economic volatility, the ADB reduced growth forecasts for developing economies in Asia. It now projects growth of 4.7% this year and 4.8% in 2027, down from 5.1% previously predicted for both years.
Inflation is also expected to rise. The ADB forecast inflation of 5.2% this year, up from 3% last year.
Private-sector economists said even wealthier countries may be forced to tighten spending. In Japan, the region’s largest developed economy, policymakers cut the forecast for real GDP growth for the fiscal year ending March 2027 by half, from 1% to 0.5%.
Frederic Neumann, Asia economist at HSBC, said regional central banks are dealing with a “very large” inflation shock. He noted that subsidies and using reserves could help reduce the impact, but “at this time only offer limited relief,” adding that disruptions could spread across the region beyond energy, including food and other inputs.
Several indicators highlighted the pressure on prices and currencies:
Neumann said central banks are increasingly concerned about growth risk, which could weigh on inflation pressures—particularly for poorer countries with limited policy space.
Bangladesh’s finance minister, Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury, said fuel spending is “draining the budget,” while inflation remains above 8%.
In India, officials said the economy will remain the world’s fastest-growing major economy, but the RBI forecast growth to slow to 6.9% in the fiscal year starting April 1, down from 7.6% last year, with downside risks flagged.
Thailand, the second-largest economy in Southeast Asia, cut its growth forecast for this year to 1.5% from 2%, while raising its inflation outlook to 3% from 0.3% previously.
Some governments introduced short-term consumer protections. Japan offered fuel subsidies, keeping gasoline prices about 10% higher than pre-war levels. The Philippines provided support to taxi and motorcycle drivers.
Andrew Tilton, Goldman Sachs’ Asia-Pacific economist, said investors are assessing risk in three stages: first focusing on price effects, then on supply disruptions and their impact on economic patterns. He said the key question now is how fiscal policymakers will balance inflation and growth.
Premium gym chains are entering a “golden era” that is ending or already in decline, as rising operating costs collide with shifting consumer preferences toward more flexible, community-based ways to exercise. Long-term memberships are shrinking, margins are pressured by higher rents and facility expenses, and competition from smaller, more personalized…
