•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Eleven tankers carrying a combined 20 million barrels of crude were detected leaving Iran’s Chabahar port this week, according to Bloomberg shipping data. MarineTraffic.com reported the departures after months of restrictions that had effectively trapped the crude.
Crude prices clawed back some ground on Friday following follow-up peace talks between Washington and Tehran being abruptly postponed, adding fresh uncertainty to the market.
Markets also grappled with conflicting signals about shipping conditions. An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps statement suggested the waterway had been closed again, but Iran’s Foreign Ministry later said it was open.
As of Friday afternoon, Brent crude traded around $80.50 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate hovered near $77.50.
Despite more than 100 days of disruptions linked to the Iran conflict and months of uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, oil has not seen the sustained spike many analysts expected.
LPL Financial chief economist Jeffrey Roach said China is the key variable. He wrote that Chinese crude imports fell to 6.7 million barrels per day last month, nearly 40% below the 2025 average.
Roach estimated the reduction amounts to roughly 4 million barrels a day of lost demand—described as “equal to the combined oil consumption of Germany and France.” He argued that this decline in Chinese buying has helped offset what otherwise could have been a severe supply shock.
The sudden release of supply coincided with a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran aimed at reducing hostilities and reopening shipping lanes.
Roach also argued that investors have focused on the wrong side of the equation. While traders have spent months weighing whether Hormuz would reopen, he pointed to China’s retreat from the crude market as potentially more significant.
He noted that President Trump signed an interim agreement with Iran that temporarily reopened shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and paved the way for broader peace talks. Additional factors cited in the article included strategic reserve releases, lower refinery runs, and new production from countries including Brazil, Guyana and the US.
LPL chief technical strategist Adam Turnquist said Brent crude has fallen nearly 40% from its April highs. He added that the Brent forward curve remains in backwardation—indicating near-term supplies are still tight—but the degree of inversion has moderated as traders price out some of the war premium accumulated during the conflict.
According to Turnquist, December Brent contracts were trading near $77 a barrel, down from $86 last week and roughly $95 a month ago.
Markets appear to be betting that some version of the current diplomatic framework survives. However, traders remain cautious: shipping through Hormuz has resumed only gradually, tanker traffic remains below pre-war levels, and the postponement of US-Iran talks has raised questions about whether the truce can hold.
Friday’s rebound in crude prices reflected those lingering concerns, while weak Chinese demand has helped keep a lid on prices.
Roach warned that the situation could change quickly: “If Chinese buying returns before supply risks ease, oil’s next move could look very different.”
Bitcoin (BTC) investors who use steady dollar-cost averaging (DCA) may be underperforming versus strategies that adjust exposure to the market’s cycle, according to new research arguing that Bitcoin’s behavior differs from traditional long-duration assets.
In a report cited by Markus Thielen of 10x Research, Bitcoin’s market…
