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Vietcap has maintained an optimistic outlook for Vietnam’s economy, keeping its 2026 GDP growth forecast at 8.5%. The firm said public investment will remain the main growth driver, with accelerating spending supporting the economy directly and generating spillover effects into the private sector.
Vietcap linked the growth outlook to the continued implementation of measures aimed at removing bottlenecks in capital mobilization and improving the business environment, including the rollout of Resolution 68. The firm expects these efforts to help sustain momentum in both public and private investment activity.
On inflation, Vietcap raised its 2026 average forecast to 4.5% from 4.3% previously. The update is based on an assumed Brent crude price of $75 per barrel.
Vietcap noted that risks tied to U.S.-Israel-Iran tensions and potential shipping disruptions through the Hormuz Strait could weigh on the outlook. However, it said the impact is expected to be partly mitigated by government support measures, including tax and fee relief on fuels and the use of the price stabilization fund totaling about VND 39 trillion.
The central bank is expected to pursue a flexible monetary policy, balancing growth support with macro risk control. Vietcap pointed to cautious credit quotas, continued constraints on real estate lending, and a draft to replace Circular 22 with tighter liquidity risk governance requirements from 2028.
The analysts said these steps are intended to curb inflation pressure and prevent overheating in the real estate market, supporting financial system stability. At the same time, authorities are expected to continue providing liquidity support and lowering interest rates.
Vietcap highlighted Circular 08/2026, which allows commercial banks to count 20% of State Treasury term deposits toward the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR). It also referenced prior central bank instructions for banks to cut deposit rates to support the economy.
For the exchange rate, Vietcap forecast USD/VND to rise about 2% per year in 2026-2027. It said exchange rate pressure is expected to be contained by persistent FDI disbursement and a gradually cooling domestic gold market.
Based on its macro assumptions, Vietcap revised its VN-Index year-end target to 1,955 points and projected the index at 2,280 by end-2027.
Corporate profits are expected to grow by 20% in 2026 and 17% in 2027.
In its investment strategy, Vietcap recommended increasing exposure to Banking, Retail, and Oil & Gas to benefit from what it described as a synchronized growth cycle.
The banking sector is viewed as a market pillar, with projected profit growth of 18% in 2026. Vietcap said investors may prefer large banks with strong asset quality and solid capital buffers amid rising macro risks.
For consumer retail, Vietcap described it as a long-term growth story supported by demographics, rising disposable income, and a shift from traditional to modern retail.
Vietcap expected the oil & gas sector to enter a long growth cycle, citing policy loosening for major projects, increased investment in basic infrastructure, and rising energy demand as Vietnam pursues higher growth.
Vietcap’s top stock picks include CTG, MBB, MWG, MSN, PVS, POW, KDH, GMD and HPG.
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