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Bitcoin is trading near $69,817 and remains stuck below the $70,000 level as it attempts to move past a technical “Bitcoin is dead” zone identified by a model at $72,201.85. The Rainbow Chart places the “Fire Sale” band at $96,239.07, implying the current price is still within a historically undervalued…
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned in his annual letter to shareholders that the war in Iran and spiking oil prices could fuel inflation this year, raising the risk that the U.S. and global economies experience stagflation. He also highlighted concerns tied to deteriorating lending standards in private credit markets, ballooning public debt, and shifting trade relations.
Dimon said the global economy is “far larger and more diversified and far less reliant on energy as an input versus 20 years ago,” but added that there is still a potential “tipping point,” which could require “more straws on the camel’s back” to arrive.
He described inflation as a central near-term threat, writing that the “skunk at the party—and it could happen in 2026—would be inflation slowly going up, as opposed to slowly going down.” Dimon warned that such a shift could push interest rates higher and weigh on asset prices.
Dimon noted that spiking oil prices and inflation have been widely viewed as major drivers of the 1974 and 1982 recessions in the U.S.
Dimon also reiterated risks in private credit markets, saying that despite some cooling in investor sentiment, losses on leveraged lending could end up higher than expected when the next credit cycle arrives.
He wrote that “credit standards have been modestly weakening pretty much across the board,” and pointed to measures taken by some private credit funds this year, including limiting withdrawals, to reduce the risk of panic selling.
Dimon attributed part of the backsliding to complacency, noting that “we have not had a credit recession in a long time, and it seems that some people assume it will never happen.”
On public finances, Dimon said elevated and rising government debt is a major risk globally. He cited a global deficit of “an extremely high 5%” and said global sovereign debt is at all-time highs.
He also referenced the Congressional Budget Office estimate that U.S. government debt will rise from 100% of GDP to 120% over the next 10 years.
Dimon warned that high and increasing government debt “will eventually have to be dealt with,” arguing that addressing it early is preferable to allowing it to become a crisis.
He further pointed to potential unintended consequences from a global realignment of economic relations, which he linked to President Donald Trump’s tariffs introduced last year.
Dimon said U.S. investors and workers could benefit from several tailwinds this year. JPMorgan estimates that last year’s “One Big, Beautiful Bill” will add $300 billion, or about 1%, to U.S. GDP in 2026. He also cited an estimated $725 billion in economic investment from tech companies tied to AI infrastructure.
Dimon said these stimuli could contribute somewhat to inflation this year, but he expects the Trump administration’s deregulatory initiatives to offset some of that inflationary pressure.
He added that Wall Street is looking for continued strength in corporate profits, with first-quarter earnings season beginning next week and analysts expecting S&P 500 companies to report double-digit profit growth.
Still, the war in Iran could weigh on sentiment. Dimon noted that while quarterly results matter, investors often focus heavily on company guidance, and executives may face difficulty offering bullish forecasts given uncertainty around the war and its economic consequences.
Premium gym chains are entering a “golden era” that is ending or already in decline, as rising operating costs collide with shifting consumer preferences toward more flexible, community-based ways to exercise. Long-term memberships are shrinking, margins are pressured by higher rents and facility expenses, and competition from smaller, more personalized…
