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KBSV has lowered its VN-Index target for 2026 from 2,040 points to 1,950 points. While the revised level still suggests roughly 15% upside versus current levels, the brokerage said the potential gains have narrowed.
Alongside the VN-Index cut, KBSV also reduced its market-wide EPS growth forecast for 2026 to 11%, down from 15.7% previously. The brokerage attributed the adjustment to a more cautious assessment as new macro risks emerge in Q1, particularly geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
KBSV said geopolitical conflict has disrupted global energy supply, pushing oil prices higher. The resulting effects include increased inflation and currency volatility, which then spill over into Vietnam’s domestic macro environment and financial markets.
Domestically, sentiment is also weighed down by liquidity shortages in the banking system and tighter credit controls on real estate markets. KBSV said these factors continue to create headwinds for growth and keep equity capital flows unsettled.
In its base case, KBSV expects geopolitical tensions to cool by the end of Q2 2026. This would allow energy prices to ease and inflation pressures to soften.
However, the brokerage noted that oil prices are not expected to return to prior lows in the medium term. As a result, it sees limited room for global monetary policy easing.
For Vietnam, KBSV said reaching around 10% GDP growth would require fiscal policy to take the lead. It added that monetary policy must balance macro stability with support for system liquidity amid ongoing rate pressures.
KBSV projects deposit rates will rise another 0.5–1% from the end of Q1 and remain high through Q2, before easing from Q3 onward. The brokerage said this path would directly affect corporate funding costs and stock-market liquidity.
On valuations, KBSV said the market’s sharp pullback in March has partly priced in risks related to rates and geopolitics. The market P/E is around 12.4x, near the lows recorded in 2022 and 2025.
With valuations at this level and a growth outlook that remains conditional, KBSV believes there are opportunities for medium- and long-term investors. It also cautioned that short-term volatility may persist due to unresolved uncertainties.
KBSV expects a clearer market recovery in the second half of 2026 as geopolitical tensions ease and interest rates gradually decline. In its base case, this could lift valuations back toward the 13x area.
The brokerage said the VN-Index trajectory will depend on rate trends, energy price movements, and the pace of corporate profit recovery for the remainder of the year.
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