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MB Securities (MBS) said in its latest report that investors on Wall Street are largely brushing off concerns related to the Iran conflict. While several major global stock markets have completed a back-and-forth move since Middle East tensions began—at times reaching historical highs—the risks to growth, inflation, and the global energy market have not fully disappeared.
For Vietnam’s domestic market, MBS noted that investor sentiment remains heavily focused on Middle East developments. Although the VN-Index has rallied for four weeks, it is still trading about 3.4% below the pre-escalation level, with the index currently around 1,800.
MBS highlighted three headwinds that are keeping “heavy money” from entering the market:
MBS said liquidity has remained subdued since the start of the year, while funds have been concentrated in the Vingroup group. It added that volatility next week is likely to be elevated, particularly as VIC and VHM are hovering near previously seen highs.
In its positive scenario, MBS expects these blue chips to retreat or trade sideways, enabling capital rotation into other large-cap groups, including Retail, Food, Airlines, Industrial Real Estate, Viettel, and Construction & Civil Engineering. It also noted that last week’s gains were mainly driven by blue chips and the VN30. In a volatile or corrective scenario, liquidity could shift toward mid-cap stocks.
MBS cautioned that if liquidity does not improve or if market breadth stays narrow, the rebound may be limited as the VN-Index approaches the old peak region of 1,860–1,900. It said sustaining the rally would likely require consensus buying from high-liquidity blue chips.
The report added that a pullback or modest correction could occur this week, helping liquidity move toward other core stocks and potentially setting up a new high. It cited a support zone of 1,770–1,780, stating: “In a correction (if any), the support region for the market is around 1,770–1,780 points; low liquidity or a decline in this context can be a positive signal to deploy or rebalance the portfolio.”
MBS advised that investors consider buying or restructuring portfolios during corrections toward the 1,770–1,780 support zone, and avoid chasing prices during strong upswings—especially if the VN-Index breaks above 1,840. It also suggested focusing on mid-caps or sectors that are currently attracting capital, including VinGroup, Retail, Food, Airlines, Industrial Real Estate, Viettel, and Construction & VLDXD.
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