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On-chain data tracking Bitcoin’s investor profitability has eased back toward the long-term average, suggesting a potential valuation reset. At the same time, crypto exchange order-flow indicators point to less aggressive selling pressure: spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) improved marginally even as spot trading volume fell to $6.0 billion from $7.6 billion. Together, these shifts are influencing expectations for when stronger spot demand may return for BTC and whether it could support a trend reversal.
Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish said the Bitcoin market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio has normalized after prior extremes that had reached more than +1 standard deviation.
The MVRV compares market capitalization with realized capitalization to gauge investor profitability. A compression toward the long-term mean places valuations closer to levels that have historically offered improved risk-reward, though Bitcoin has not yet moved into a deep undervalued range.
Realized capitalization has also declined. It fell to $1.09 trillion from a November 2025 peak of $1.12 trillion, a contraction of roughly $33 billion in network value.
The 30-day change in realized capitalization stands at -2.26%, consistent with sustained capital outflows. BTC researcher Axel Adler Jr. added that coins aged three to six months now represent 25.9% of the supply, the largest cohort. Adler Jr. noted that many of these positions were opened near cycle highs and are currently underwater.
Adler Jr. characterized the overall setup as a defensive phase: holders are not capitulating in size, but new capital inflows have not yet reversed the realized-cap trend. He said the market remains “neutrally defensive” until the realized cap returns to positive momentum.
The exchange-flow data aligns with this defensive stance. Glassnode data shows spot cumulative volume delta improved to -$161.5 million from -$177.1 million, indicating a modest reduction in aggressive selling.
CVD reflects the cumulative difference between buy and sell market orders. Meanwhile, spot trading volume declined to $6.0 billion from $7.6 billion, pointing to thinner participation and choppier price action.
In earlier cycles, sharp CVD drawdowns during price declines have often coincided with local bottom formation once selling pressure stabilized. The article notes that if BTC continues holding in the $62,000–$64,000 range alongside a flattening in CVD, it may suggest supply is being absorbed more efficiently—particularly if spot participation recovers from current subdued levels.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
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