Middle East conflict drives Africa into fuel crisis

Just one month after the conflict with Iran broke out, many African countries have struggled to maintain economic activity amid tightened fuel supplies, according to DW.

Fuel shortages and rising prices across the region

In Kenya, shortages of about 20% have appeared at fuel stations, the market reported. Suppliers cited a wave of stockpiling driven by panic sentiment. The situation also reflects a structural vulnerability: Kenya typically holds reserves equivalent to 2–3 weeks of domestic demand, leaving the country highly dependent on continuous imports and exposed to global supply shocks.

In Tanzania, fuel prices have risen by more than 30%, a level of volatility comparable to the period in 2022 when the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted. With current reserves, the economy can sustain activity for about another month, but the risk of further price increases remains difficult to avoid.

In Ethiopia, the government has intervened administratively by requiring suppliers to prioritize fuel distribution to state projects and major industries. In the Tigray region, where security remains unstable, fuel supply has been completely halted amid the risk of renewed civil war.

South Sudan highlights another constraint: it is oil-rich but lacks domestic refining capacity. Only a small portion of crude oil is refined, mainly for electricity, and that supply has been unreliable.

Power-sector risk and refining constraints

Attiya Waris, a UN independent expert on debt and human rights, warned that the crisis risks spreading to the power sector. She noted that average electricity access in many African countries is around 40%. Even areas already connected to the grid face the risk of growing power shortages.

Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, is seeking to improve refining capacity, including upgrading state-owned plants and increasing output at the Dangote complex in Lekki near Lagos. However, after decades of neglect, the state refining system has limited ability to operate efficiently. As a result, Nigeria continues to export crude oil while importing refined products—a pattern described as common across the continent.

Debt obligations and the “oil-for-debt” dynamic

Waris said that in the current geopolitical context, oil-exporting countries such as Nigeria or Angola are also constrained by financial obligations. Many countries owe debt to international organizations such as the IMF, as well as bilateral and private creditors. This can create an “oil-for-debt” mechanism, limiting the ability to prioritize domestic needs even when resources are available at home.

As fuel supplies run low, plants may be forced to shut down, disrupting production chains.

Policy gaps in crisis response

To prevent a wider crisis, experts say Africa needs to implement market interventions quickly, including price controls and demand management.

Waris noted that other regions have used strong measures such as restricting movement, encouraging working from home, and even closing public spaces to prioritize fuel for essential needs like cooking. However, such policies have not been widely implemented across Africa.

South Africa is cited as a notable exception. This week, the ruling coalition of President Cyril Ramaphosa—often at odds—showed signs of consensus on responding to fuel price pressure. The Democratic Alliance (DA), a major coalition partner, has pushed for a fuel tax cut to ease the burden on consumers.

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana cautioned that cutting fuel taxes just days after budget approval would be hasty, especially given the long-term effects of the war remain unpredictable. Key questions remain, including how long the conflict will last and what other government interventions may follow.

Supply options and structural vulnerabilities

From a supply perspective, South Africa is described as more flexible than many regional peers, importing only about 20% of its crude oil from the Middle East. This gives it room to diversify import sources. James Lorimer, head of minerals and oil at the DA party, said South Africa remains capable of adjusting its import strategy.

One option under consideration is increasing imports of refined gasoline from the Dangote refinery in Nigeria, given South Africa’s domestic refining capacity has declined as some plants have closed in recent years. Minerals Minister Mantashe also proposed restarting some idle refineries to boost domestic supply, though the plan could have considerable environmental consequences.

Overall, the crisis is not only a short-term consequence of geopolitics but also exposes structural weaknesses in many African economies. When global supply fluctuates, countries that rely on imports, lack refining capacity, and face debt obligations have limited room to maneuver.

If the Middle East conflict lasts longer, pressure is expected to extend beyond fuel prices to manufacturing, electricity, and broader macroeconomic stability, increasing the urgency of energy-market reform and long-term self-sufficiency.