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Nearly $15 billion worth of Bitcoin options contracts are set to expire on the Deribit derivatives exchange on Friday, accounting for nearly 40% of the exchange’s current $36.5 billion in BTC open interest.
Deribit, acquired by Coinbase in 2025 for $2.9 billion, continues to operate as Deribit. Jean-David Pequignot, the exchange’s chief commercial officer, said the platform expects a total of $17 billion in options expiring, including Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Pequignot said geopolitical developments are “timed to spike volatility” on Friday. He pointed to Bitcoin’s recent move toward $71,000, which he linked to President Donald Trump’s decision to postpone strikes on Iranian power plants for five days. That diplomatic window is set to expire close to Friday’s options expiry, which Pequignot said could create a localized volatility effect in the term structure.
He also noted that Deribit options data indicates traders have been de-risking steadily ahead of the expiry. The exchange has seen implied volatility compression in both BTC and ETH contracts, suggesting the market is pricing in a controlled expiry rather than an immediate surge in volatility.
On Wednesday afternoon, total Bitcoin open interest reached $112 billion, after rising 8% over the prior day, according to Coinglass, which aggregates Bitcoin derivatives data from 24 exchanges including Deribit, CME, Binance, OKX, and ByBit.
Implied volatility has been mixed. A Nexo analyst, Iliya Kalchev, said traders should expect a relatively orderly settlement. He added that after the expiry overhang clears, prices often “find their footing,” and some additional weekend activity would not be surprising.
Kalchev referenced historical patterns in which large expiries have preceded major weekend moves, including in September 2025. In that period, 30-day Bitcoin volatility fell to 0.88% ahead of an expiry, rose to 1.14% a week later, and climbed above 2% by month-end after a $19 billion liquidation wipeout triggered a BTC crash.
More recently, Kalchev said 30-day Bitcoin volatility remained elevated at 2.23% by Wednesday afternoon.
Despite higher volatility, Kalchev said there are signs of resilience around the $70,000 area, supported by solid spot demand and steadiness from longer-term holders.
For traders looking to position for higher prices, Kalchev suggested monitoring ETF flows and on-chain accumulation to gauge whether fresh capital is entering the market rather than existing participants rotating.
As of Wednesday afternoon, Bitcoin traded around $70,912.18, up 2.3% on the day, according to CoinGecko.
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