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Oil and natural gas markets are trading in a tense geopolitical environment in the Persian Gulf as of June 12, 2026, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and Middle East crude shipments down sharply. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire has now held for more than ten weeks, but Iran-Israel tensions continue to add volatility, while limited maritime traffic and ongoing strikes have constrained earlier rallies.
Middle East oil production remains down by more than 11 million barrels per day versus the prewar period in May. At the same time, the global oil market has seen steep drawdowns in total oil inventory (crude and refined products) under current expectations, with OECD crude oil inventory levels heading toward their lowest since 2003.
With ceasefire talks ongoing between the U.S. and Iran, crude prices are described as more volatile, reflecting the combination of reduced shipping capacity and the fragility of any potential agreement. Market expectations point to non-[OPEC+] supply increases—alongside resilient U.S. production—and a gradual resumption of Persian Gulf exports as key factors for normalizing supply conditions. Analysts expect crude exports could resume gradually, potentially extending into 2027. U.S. refinery utilization remains robust, and U.S. crude stockpiles are lower than usual for this time of year, supporting fundamentals despite some softer-than-expected product demand.
Natural gas fundamentals are described as likely plentiful for the foreseeable future. U.S. natural gas production remains near record highs and is supported by higher associated gas volumes from the oil sector. The EIA has raised natural gas production forecasts for 2026, while storage builds have remained above average throughout 2026. A cooler weather outlook could also keep power-sector demand weak for now.
U.S. LNG exports are increasing, but overall supply growth could still outpace consumption growth. Overall, the market balance is expected to remain plentiful in 2026.
Natural gas futures were trading at $3.082 on 2-hour NYMEX charts. The contract retested the red 50-period moving average at 3.15 inside a blue rising channel. Higher lows from the recent swing are holding as buyers absorb price near the channel floor, while RSI is hovering near 50, indicating neutral momentum. A volume profile level at 3.028 is marked as a solid support pivot.
Fib targets are cited in the 3.099–3.153 range as a confluence of resistance. The outlook is described as bullish above the 3.028 pivot level, with buyers active on dips and price maintaining a higher-high/higher-low structure.
WTI crude was at $86.12 on the 2-hour chart. Red continuation candles accelerated lower after the price broke above the blue channel floor at 88.99, alongside the red 50-period moving average at 91.13. Bearish engulfing candle bodies with large lower wicks are printing new lows from the prior high of $93.61, indicating strong distribution.
The move is described as targeting the 84.11–82.15 Fib extension levels. RSI is dropping below 45, reflecting weaker momentum. The volume profile highlights the 88–90 area as a failed fair value level, while a declining trend line at previous highs continues to cap bounces. The structure is characterized as bearish under 88.99 within a wider declining channel from the 98 level, with lower highs and lower lows driven by seller control.
Brent crude was at $88.48 on the 2-hour chart. The contract saw rejection at the 50-period moving average at 92.73 and also broke under the blue channel. Mixed candle bodies are printing lower highs as distribution continues, with the market retesting a prior pivot at 87.53.
RSI is near 46, signaling falling momentum. The volume profile shows the 92–94 area as a large supply zone. A Fib zone of 87.53–85.14 is cited as a downside confluence area. Price is described as neutral-to-bearish below the 89.89 pivot level as it slides within a broader declining channel, with rejection wicks from highs indicating limited buying interest on bounces.
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