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June WTI crude oil and Spot Brent crude oil posted their strongest weekly gains since the conflict began, supported by a Strait of Hormuz that remained effectively closed across all five sessions and by Iran talks that produced no outcome until Friday. The week’s price action was volatile, with both contracts showing sharp reversals, but the underlying supply picture did not improve.
After Iran talks collapsed over the weekend, Monday’s market reaction was immediate. June WTI futures rose 1.90% as Trump’s comments indicating Iran needed to make the first move reduced optimism.
Throughout the week, the Strait of Hormuz operated at minimal capacity. Estimates cited a shortfall of 10 to 13 million barrels per day that was not reaching global markets, a scale the market treated as material rather than temporary.
On Tuesday, June WTI broke above $100 a barrel for the first time since early April. The Islamabad talks stalled on demand-blocking issues. Iran’s position was that the U.S. naval blockade should be lifted before it reopens the Strait, while the U.S. did not indicate movement on that condition.
During the disruption, large Iranian crude carriers were reported idle near ports, floating storage was filling up, and Iran was cutting production due to the lack of available routes.
The American Petroleum Institute confirmed the physical market signals. Crude stockpiles fell by 1.79 million barrels versus expectations for a build. Gasoline inventories dropped by more than 8 million barrels. The combination of a crude draw, a large gasoline draw, and an active supply disruption supported the week’s bullish momentum.
On Wednesday, Washington extended the blockade of Iranian ports, and both markets moved roughly 3% on the session. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company reportedly told some customers they may need to load crude from outside the Gulf, indicating rerouting at the operational level.
Thursday’s spike was described as driven by positioning rather than fundamentals. Spot Brent reached $120.54 a barrel and June WTI spiked to $110.93 overnight, then both reversed sharply into the close. Spot Brent settled near $114 and June WTI ended near $105. The move was attributed to contract expiry, thin liquidity, and elevated volatility, with the underlying supply picture not improving over the day.
Friday’s decline was linked to diplomacy rather than a structural shift. Iran introduced a new proposal, and June WTI sold off. The contracts still finished the week with strong gains, with a ceasefire technically in place but not trusted, and threats described as still active on both sides.
June WTI futures settled sharply higher after reaching the highest level since 2022 at $110.93. The rally stopped short of prior nearby tops at $117.63 and $119.48, which were cited as upside targets. The broader reference range included $55.12 to $110.93, with retracement support zones at $83.02 to $76.44 and a short-term range of $78.97 to $110.93 with retracement at $94.95 to $91.18.
The weekly swing chart indicated an uptrend, with a trade through $110.93 signaling a resumption. A trade through $78.87 would change the trend to down. The 52-week moving average was cited at $66.38 as a support and trend-guidance level.
For near-term buying interest, the article highlighted potential zones at $94.95 to $91.18 and $83.02 to $76.44. The key level to watch for the week was $102.76: holding above it would support a case for extending the rally, while a sustained move below it would suggest movement toward the two support zones.
Spot Brent was described as in an uptrend on the weekly swing chart and supported by the 52-week moving average at $73.89. A trade through $120.54 would signal a resumption of the uptrend, with potential upside momentum toward 2022 tops at $126.63 and $135.36. A trade through $87.32 would change the trend to down.
Support zones were cited at $103.93 to $100.01 and $89.76 to $82.50. The key level controlling direction for the week was identified as $112.87: a sustained move above it would set a potentially bullish tone, while a sustained move below it could turn bearish.
The outlook in the article centered on two factors: the Strait of Hormuz and the status of talks. Iran was described as demanding control over the Strait and compensation for losses since the conflict began, while the U.S. focused on nuclear concessions and was not moving on the naval blockade. The gap between those positions was described as unchanged.
OPEC+ agreed to raise output again in June, but the article characterized the increase as largely symbolic because the Strait closure continued to restrict actual supply flows. It argued that additional barrels were not reaching the market meaningfully while exports remained limited.
Analysts cited in the article expected normalization of flows to take several months after any resolution, emphasizing that inventory draws and short-term pullbacks could occur due to contract mechanics, positioning resets, and ceasefire headlines. Until a verified reopening of the Strait or a credible diplomatic breakthrough, the article concluded that downside in June WTI and Spot Brent appeared limited and that the risk remained skewed toward further upside.
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